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To follow up on Tim's previous points, Dan Nexon at Duck of Minerva has a good post on the demands that President Obama rhetorically intervene in the Iranian election. Responding to Allahpundit's directive that Obama join German Chancellor Angela Merkel in harshly criticizing the Iranian government:
Well, this isn't rocket science but... last time I checked, not only are Germany and the United States different countries, but Germany (1) doesn't routinely project power into the Middle East, (2) doesn't pursue a containment policy against Iran, (3) didn't orchestrate a coup d'état against a man who is now revered Iranian hero, and (4) wasn't the key backer of a reviled Iranian dictator.In other words, a statement by the President of the United States might be expected to have a different effect than one by the Chancellor of Germany. I would add this; some substantial minority of Iranians voted for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. I don't think anyone knows how many, but it's more than a residue, and I doubt, on Friday, that anyone would have been surprised to find out that it's a plurality. This substantial minority of Iranians undoubtedly will interpret rhetorical intervention as foreign machination in Iranian affairs, in large part because they almost certainly believe that their man won the election. This is not just a story about "the people" rising against an unjust regime; it's also a story about intra-elite conflict, and about a deeply divided electorate. Even if a strong statement from Obama would be viewed positively by a significant percentage of protesters (and it's unclear that this would be the case), there's no indication that the protesters' allies in the Iranian government would feel the same way, and there's very good reason to think that the people on the fence would understand such a statement as a direct effort to intervene. There's a big difference between accepting the election of Mir Hossein Mousavi, and accepting the election of American-backed Mir Hossein Mousavi; fortunately, I think that Obama understands this. --Robert Farley
