President Obama thinks that aside from handling the economic crisis, passing a cap-and-trade bill, reforming our health care system, and dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan he's also going to take on immigration reform in his first term, according to the New York Times. Illegal immigration has gone down because of the recession, but undocumented immigrants who were already here for the most part haven't left, because return migration of unauthorized immigrants is generally affected not just by economic conditions in the host country, but the ease of circulation and the economic conditions in the country of origin. There hasn't been any significant growth in the unauthorized immigrant population since 2006, according to the Migration Policy Institute.
I get the impression the right thinks it has a winner here--all they need to do is get Pat Buchanan and Bill O'Reilly on the teevee, Rush on the radio, warn everyone about the decline in the white male power structure--oh wait. This simply isn't the issue it once was, if it ever was. It's not like Tom Tancredo or Duncan Hunter won the GOP presidential primary last year. It's possible that popular discontent could grow over unemployment and the perception that unauthorized immigrants are taking American jobs, and the GOP wouldn't hesitate to take advantage of that. But the party has already paid a certain price for being the party of angry white men, and any short term political victories gained from defeating another comprehensive immigration reform bill probably won't be worth it in the long run.
Moreover, while more efficient enforcement has likely contributed to the decline in new unauthorized immigrants entering the country, that doesn't really solve the problem of what to do with the 12 million who are already here. Misguided efforts to deal with this problem either may not work or may simply make the problems conservatives generally lay at the feet of unauthorized immigrants, such as crime, even worse.
-- A. Serwer
