The Pew Poll showing that voters think Obama isn't tough enough on national security and yet still prefer him to John McCain is pretty interesting. I'm not quite sure that the results are "insanely good news for Barack Obama's prospects of beating John McCain," but it's certainly promising. I can think of two main explanations:
- National security has declined in salience. This could be because the country is moving on from 9/11, could be because economic concerns are intensifying, could be because there's not a Republican campaign machine spending hundreds of millions to scare the bejeesus out of everyone. Yet. When McCain actually goes head-to-head against Obama and attempts to force voters to face up to their apparent belief that Obama is "weak," this judgment could move from a gut sense they have to the reason they decide to vote for McCain. That, at least, is what McCain is hoping.
- The other possibility is that Pew was asking the wrong question. Yes, voters think Obama isn't quite "tough enough." But where that once stood as a perfectly usable guide to foreign policy competence, now voters are looking for something beyond toughness: They're looking for judgment, prudence, knowledge, open-mindedness. This is the interpretation that would really be insanely good news for Obama, as it would mean his foreign policy approach has a deep resonance, and that John McCain's primary line of attack is going to sound anachronistic and old-fashioned. If McCain tries to appeal to 2004's electorate and finds they no longer exist, or no longer comprise a majority, he's really lacking in alternative options.
Which gets to one of the interesting elements of this election: Obama really is running on a different foreign policy than McCain. He's running on a different foreign policy, and a different conception of the politics of foreign policy, than any Democrat in a generation. If he wins, not only will he have a mandate for a new approach to international affairs, but he'll have created a new model for Democrats on national security: One that emphasizes judgment over strength, and uses the consequences of thoughtless aggression to neutralize the intuitive appeal of "toughness."
