I think Josh Patashnik does a good job injecting some skepticism into the idea that Barack Obama will easily win Virginia next week. As Josh says, it's not really clear why that's become such a widely held belief -- it's not obvious from the racial demographics, or the polls, or the income composition. And it wouldn't really matter except now, because Obama is expected to win (based off no evidence), if he loses, it will be a huge deal. Remember, we're in a primary where Clinton sent out an e-mail saying the "upset of the night" was in Massachusetts, where she'd been leading by 30 points a week before. Update: Well, this new poll certainly suggests that Obama's lead is real.
