The new Pew Poll has some worrying portents for Obama. In addition to his high rate of Democratic defections -- see Kevin for more on that -- he's got a long way to go convincing the electorate of his foreign policy bona fides. A solid plurality, as you can see in the chart on the right, think Obama is "not tough enough," and a vanishingly small number think he's "too tough." Compare that to McCain, who has a strong plurality believing he's "about right," and some bleeding over into "too tough," which has tended to be the safer direction in which to err in American politics. This isn't only affecting Obama among the class of folks who would sooner vote for a six-legged pig in lipstick than a Democrat. Says Pew: "Obama suffers a significant number of defections from Democrats with more conservative foreign policy views, particularly on the issue of Iraq. A large majority of Democrats -- 70% -- say they want U.S. troops in Iraq to return home as soon as possible; these Democrats overwhelmingly favor either Obama or Clinton over McCain. But roughly a quarter of Democrats believes the troops should remain in Iraq until the situation has stabilized. These voters would support Clinton over McCain by greater than five-to-one (83% vs. 14%). Democrats who support maintaining U. S. forces in Iraq would support Obama over McCain by a smaller margin (66% to 31%)."On some level, there's nothing odd about that. If you want to hang out in Iraq forever, you should probably vote for the candidate whose policy is perpetual war. Nor should Obama's shortcomings in the toughness sweepstakes shock anyone. Insofar as the foreign policy conversation is going to be about "toughness," Democrats will always lose. The question for Obama, and one of the central rationales behind his candidacy, is that he could help shift that discussion, he could "change the mindset." But it won't be easy. As you can see in Pew's offhanded use of toughness as a stand-in for national security credibility, the conflation of aggression and competence runs pretty deep in our polity. If, by the election's end, this poll question is still being used, Obama's probably not doing too well. IS OBAMA A WIMP?
The new Pew Poll has some worrying portents for Obama. In addition to his high rate of Democratic defections -- see Kevin for more on that -- he's got a long way to go convincing the electorate of his foreign policy bona fides. A solid plurality, as you can see in the chart on the right, think Obama is "not tough enough," and a vanishingly small number think he's "too tough." Compare that to McCain, who has a strong plurality believing he's "about right," and some bleeding over into "too tough," which has tended to be the safer direction in which to err in American politics. This isn't only affecting Obama among the class of folks who would sooner vote for a six-legged pig in lipstick than a Democrat. Says Pew: "Obama suffers a significant number of defections from Democrats with more conservative foreign policy views, particularly on the issue of Iraq. A large majority of Democrats -- 70% -- say they want U.S. troops in Iraq to return home as soon as possible; these Democrats overwhelmingly favor either Obama or Clinton over McCain. But roughly a quarter of Democrats believes the troops should remain in Iraq until the situation has stabilized. These voters would support Clinton over McCain by greater than five-to-one (83% vs. 14%). Democrats who support maintaining U. S. forces in Iraq would support Obama over McCain by a smaller margin (66% to 31%)."On some level, there's nothing odd about that. If you want to hang out in Iraq forever, you should probably vote for the candidate whose policy is perpetual war. Nor should Obama's shortcomings in the toughness sweepstakes shock anyone. Insofar as the foreign policy conversation is going to be about "toughness," Democrats will always lose. The question for Obama, and one of the central rationales behind his candidacy, is that he could help shift that discussion, he could "change the mindset." But it won't be easy. As you can see in Pew's offhanded use of toughness as a stand-in for national security credibility, the conflation of aggression and competence runs pretty deep in our polity. If, by the election's end, this poll question is still being used, Obama's probably not doing too well. 
