On this Kentucky Derby weekend, I thought I'd post the odds that the TradeSports online futures market has set on the 2008 presidential candidates and other interesting political events. The numbers below are the percentage chances that the market has assigned to each candidate winning. If Feingold is at 3.7, that means that if you buy $3.70 worth of contracts on Feingold, your money will turn into $100 if he wins, and $0 if he loses. If you want to end up with $100 after a Hillary victory, by contrast, you have to cough up $45.20, which vanishes if she loses.
Democratic nomination:
Clinton - 45.2
Warner - 23.8
Gore - 9.6 (you don't have to be running for people to bet on you)
Edwards - 6.5 (I own me some Johnny; I think he's worth 15 or so)
Feingold - 3.7 (I also own some Feingold, since I think he'll go up before he goes down)
Kerry - 3.6
