By Neil the Ethical Werewolf A few of my friends on the left have worried that Bush is going to launch foolish attacks on Iran shortly in advance of elections, so as to help Republicans by forcing foreign policy issues into voters minds. While the Bush administration is perfectly happy to cynically harm American foreign policy interests for narrow political gain, I think a proper cynical calculus will steer them clear of this folly. If there's anything to the hypothesis that Bush's approval ratings are heavily influenced by gas prices, the administration has much to fear from a pre-election conflict with Iran. Violence and instability in the Middle East tend to drive gas prices up. In this case, it wouldn't just be the violence and instability we generate by bombing Iran, it'd be the violence and instability that Iran and its agents generate by retaliating throughout the Middle East. The administration can't be looking forward to an October filled with oil panics, pipeline sabotage, and anti-American violence.
