A week after Koizumi deployed his lipstick assassins to win a landslide victory for reform in Japan, we were supposed to see the same in Germany. Angela Merkel, an American-style economic reformer who promised free market solutions and a reigning-in of the welfare state was slated to crush Old Europe's Gerhard Schroeder. But a funny thing happened on the way to the ballot box...
Merkel's campaign was inept, self-contradictory, uninspired. Schroeder was canny, quick, and crucified Merkel as a uncompassionate conservative, slicing her lead in the polls and leaving election night a nailbiting affair. When all was said and voted, Merkel's Christian Democrats had won a plurality with 35.2% while Schroeder's Social Democrats got 34.3%. And then Schroeder did something very American: he claimed victory.
The argument? That his surge shows the German people didn't want to replace him. Apparently German elections run not on majorities and pluralities, but on momentum and buzz. And since neither broke 50%, it'll all be about the coalitions they form in Parliament -- if Schroeder can get the majority, he'll win. Only problem is he and the Greens only make 44% of Parliament and he won't cooperate with the Christian Democrats -- Merkel's party -- unless he's made chancellor. So a return of the Schroeder is fairly unlikely. But I do like the results. Much as Bush proved that his second place in 2000 meant the American people much preferred him to the guy they voted in, Schroeder is proving the same. And if he wins with it, maybe we'll find our friends across the Atlantic aren't as old-fashioned as Rumsfeld would have us think.
