Mike Crowley suggests that McCain can find his mojo in New England, with a desperate bid to win New Hampshire and one of Maine's congressional districts. The claim relies on the idea that McCain has a mystical connection with the state's voters thanks to his primary wins and maverick status. Having grown up in New Hampshire, I'm kind of mystified by the idea. But there's not a lot of empirical data to back it up -- or for that matter, anecdotal evidence. On a recent trip to the state, I found several independent and conservative voters who were tired of the guy. Check the polling averages, too, where McCain has consistently been trailing:
Then consider that Democratic primary voters out-numbered Republican primary voters by nearly 50,000. Consider also that McCain beat someone in the 2008 primary who is from Massachusetts -- no Masshole was going to win the New Hampshire primary. Consider that the Obama campaign has 16 offices in the state, more than any other nominee in recent general election history, and is working closely with the popular Governor John Lynch, Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen and both congressional incumbents, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, to get out the vote. Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is relying on its grassroots support, with only four offices funded by the campaign and four others supplied by the state party.
The last few years have shown a steady Democratic tilt in the New Hampshire, with John Kerry winning the state in 2004 alongside John Lynch, the state's popular Democratic governor who was overwhelmingly re-elected in 2006. That same year, both of New Hampshire's congressional districts chose Democratic Representatives, and the party made gains in the state legislature as well. Though GOP officials take a long view, pointing to previous Democratic upsurges in the state, there is no denying the recent evidence of a leftward lean. Perhaps things might change if McCain essentially moved there and spent a ton of money, but in that case he'd probably lose another state he needs, like Florida. The other thing that isn't present in Mike's calculations is the likelihood of an Obama win in Virginia, where he has amassed a steady lead and has incredible down-ballot support. A trip to Southern Virginia this weekend led me to local Democrats who thought Obama was more likely to win their area then their congressional candidate.
In Maine, meanwhile, both Senators are criticizing the McCain campaign's robocalls. They wouldn't be getting out front to make their objections known unless they thought McCain himself was a major liability towards their own elections, so I have a hard time believing that McCain can really flip a district.
If McCain moved to New England for two weeks, he'd essentially be conceding the election. Crowley puts the odds of this gambit paying off at 5-1. I'd say it's more like fifty.
--Tim Fernholz
