So some guy named Obama beat somebody named Clinton in Oregon yesterday. Big deal. The real action was the Democratic primary to determine who attempts to topple Republican Senator Gordon Smith, a potential pickup for Dems this November. State House Speaker Jeff Merkley won 45-42 against Steve Novick, and it looks as though Merkley is polling decently against Smith (losing 42-45), according to a DSCC poll.
One should always be wary of partisan polls as a rule, and this one is a bit misleading. By conflating Smith's "fair" (35 percent) and "poor" (20 percent) ratings into one "total negative" rating of 55 percent, the DSCC can claim that "Gordon Smith's negative attacks against Jeff Merkley clearly backfired, driving his own job approval down to 29%." Another way of putting it is that Smith's favorables are 64 percent (combined "excellent" "good" and "fair"). Still, polling under 50 percent usually sounds the alarm for an incumbent -- and this poll was taken before the primary Merkley won, which means he could experience a post-primary bump in his numbers. We'll have to keep an eye on this one.
--Mori Dinauer
