Another Alaskan sends a dispatch to a D.C. editor, this time explaining Palin's abilities:
What the Republicans missed about Sarah Palin then -- and what the Democrats seem poised to miss now--is that she is a true political savant; a candidate with a knack for identifying the key gripes of the populace and packaging herself as the solution. That keen political nose has enabled her to routinely outperform her resume. Nearly two years into her administration, she still racks up approval ratings of 80 percent or better.
It's a good point. Palin isn't qualified to be vice president, but she's also shown solid political abilities in Alaska, and judging from her speech Friday she will have what it takes to make a convincing case for her candidacy and McCain's tomorrow night.
But no matter how good the speech is -- and it won't have to be too good given the low expectations around her, as Joe Trippi observes -- she cannot move the ball forward. She can only explain and correct for the ways the media's post-selection vetting has damaged the McCain narrative -- it's discovery of her lack of experience, the fact she was for earmarks before she was against them, her membership in a secessionist political party, Troopergate, her controversial time as mayor, and, yes, her daughter's pregnancy. (It's unfortunate that the last item is part of the conversation at all, but it just is -- in part because of the McCain camp's emphasis on Palin as a mother.)
Palin's problems are important, not because they reflect poorly on her (though they mostly do), but because they demonstrate that McCain's judgment is poor. There's little Palin can do to fix that problem, but even if she can reassure moderate voters, she will only have set theclock back to Friday, not improved her side's standing in the race.
Conservatives will stick with Palin, and rally to the campaign, but that's not enough to win an election. Will she able to sway moderate women or rural voters with her personal story alone? Judging by the initial response, I don't think so. Polls will have to bear this out, but McCain's reckless decision to choose Palin combined with Hurricane Gustav has demolished the GOP's ability to make their convention into a game-changer. While I didn't share Ezra's pessimism about the Democratic convention, he's right about the Republican event. This race isn't over by any means, but McCain's inability to marshal an aggressive message this week has undercut his opportunity to gain ground on Obama.
No more Palinblogging for me today.
--Tim Fernholz
