Stephen gives good reasons for skepticism about whether the theocratic right would go third party in the event of a Giuliani nomination. I think Giuliani will be able to make good enough promises to activists to get them to support him -- it's not like he cares enough about the issues not to. I don't know whether those activists will be able to turn out the base as much as they'd be able to do for, say, Huckabee. (On the other side of the GOP, Giuliani's "I'm personally pro-choice, but I find it convenient to accept the theory of Constitutional interpretation that bans abortion in red states" line will probably get millionaire pundit men to declare him a social liberal.)
If there's a scenario where Dobson and company don't play ball, it probably goes like this: Democrats nominate someone who doesn't allow the GOP to tap into sixteen years of Hillary smears, leaving the base unmotivated to vote. At the same time, discontent with the Iraq War keeps independents away from Giuliani's politics of mass destruction, and his poll numbers become terrible. Seeing little else to play for, Dobson decides to cement his power within the Republican Party by delivering the coup de grace. So he goes third party, Rudy loses big, and for a generation, evangelical leaders say to Republicans: "If you nominate another candidate who isn't a true believer, we're going to do that again."
