Bob Shrum is reviled as the Democratic consultant who loses presidential races -- but revered as a great presidential speech writer. The Prospect caught up with Shrum outside Pepsi Center an hour or so before Michelle Obama's big speech -- and just three days before her husband's even bigger one.
Do you think the economic message will be the difference ultimately for Barack Obama?
Look, it would be inconceivable that a Democrat under these circumstances with this economy would lose. Every model says that he wins. But the one thing we cannot factor into those models is race, and it's what we don't talk much about because we hope it isn't true. But it's clearly going to be a factor. JFK lost some votes because he was Catholic and Obama is going to lose some votes because he’s an African American.
What do you make of the Clinton-Obama rift. Is it real?
I don't think there will be a rift by the end of the convention. I think they'll make up by the end.
Let's say David Axelrod goes down and they call Bob Shrum out of the dugout for relief. How would you advise the campaign?
I would say, call David Plouffe.
So you don't want to armchair quarterback a bit?
Let me tell you something: I really have no patience for some of the stuff I've heard from some armchair critics in the last week and people who aren't inside the campaign. I've been through this, with people on the outside saying, “Well, they ought to do this, they ought to do that.” None of that is helpful. These guys did a brilliant job. They took a nomination away from somebody who was a virtual lock to win, and I have nothing critical to say at all. And if I had any suggestions I'd give them directly.
You've written some legendary political speeches. What does Obama need to do in his Thursday night acceptance speech?
I think Obama's great challenge is to combine inspiration and “change we can believe in” with substance we can believe in. The substance is there -- he just has to tell people. This is one of the greatest platforms he's gonna get. Al Gore in 2000 got one of the biggest bounces out of a convention speech anyone has ever had, something around 13 to 18 points. And it had a lot of substance to it. But it was clothed in human terms, talking about families he met and, for Gore, some inspirational quality. I think Obama will give a superb speech, but it has to have substance in it as well as spirit.
--Tom Schaller
Previous Party People Q&As:
John King, CNN analyst
Bob Springmeyer, candidate for governor of Utah
Bracken Hendricks, clean-energy evangelist
Karen Brown and Bonnie Tierney, Clinton and McCain supporters.
Don Beyer, former Democratic VA gubernatorial candidate
Chris Redfern, Ohio Democratic Party Chair
David Cicilline, Mayor of Providence
Nancy Ruth White, Clinton Delegate
Nancy Keenan, President of NARAL
