In Virginia political news, a new survey from Public Policy Polling has former Democratic governor Tim Kaine in a toss-up against former Republican governor George Allen for the 2012 Senate race:
The Virginia Senate race is about as much of a toss up as it could be: Tim Kaine and George Allen tie at 47% in our first poll since Jim Webb announced his retirement.
Kaine is slightly more popular than Allen, sporting a 46/38 favorability spread to Allen's 39/40. Both benefit from a pretty unified party base, with 87% of Republicans going toward Allen and 86% of Democrats to Kaine. Allen is able to earn the tie despite the fact that there are likely to be more Democratic than Republican voters in a Presidential year electorate because independents lean toward him by a 50/41 margin.
More interesting are the results for other Democratic candidates besides Kaine. Rick Boucher, the former representative Virginia's 9th district, trails Allen by 5 points — 47-42 — while Tom Perriello is 7 points behind, 48-41. On its face, this looks disappointing for liberals who hoped to see Perriello enter the race. But, as PPP's Tom Jensen notes, closer examination reveals a much more positive situation.
For starters, Barack Obama is not unpopular in the state — a 48 percent approval rating — and Allen has a hard time breaking 50 percent against any Democratic nominee. What's more, neither Perriello nor Boucher enjoy much in the way of name recognition. For Perriello, 57 percent Virginia voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion, while 60 percent say the same for Boucher. To quote Jensen, "Perriello and Boucher might start lower than Kaine, but their ceilings aren't necessarily any lower than Kaine's." Virginians are basically divided about Allen, which is good news for Perriello and his boosters. Not only is he a plausible challenger, but given a decent campaign and the right conditions — i.e., enthusiastic Democratic voters — he could become the odds on favorite.
