PIRACY-TERRORISM NEXUS.

A few years back, Gal Luft wrote an article in Foreign Affairs on something called the "piracy-terrorism nexus." The idea was that piracy (which at that time was on the increase in Southeast Asia) might contribute to terrorism; terrorists and pirates might use the same funding sources, terrorists might employ tactics of piracy to attack maritime trade, or terrorists might use pirates in some kind of mega-attack on Singapore or another major container port. Nothing much ever came of the "nexus" because Malaysia and Indonesia clamped down pretty hard on piracy, and because the communities that produce pirates were never very friendly with the terrorists.

Fast forward a couple of years, and piracy becomes a big problem off the Horn of Africa. The pirates are primarily interested in financial gain; they want to ransom ships and crews for enormous sums, hopefully avoiding French commandos along the way. But, of course, Somalia has also become a center of Islamic radicalism. Just two years ago, the United States underwrote an Ethiopian proxy war designed to drive the Islamic Courts Union from power, because the ICU was suspected of connections with al-Qaeda. Oddly enough, piracy had actually gone down during the period of ICU control, because pirates often act as local militias, and these militias were weakened by the ICU. Anyway, with the ICU gone and anarchy prevailing in Somalia, pirate attacks have gone back up. It looks as if radical Islamist groups want a piece of the action. In addition to their normal 5 percent cut on local pirate ransoms, the al Shabbab group also wants some of the Ukrainian weapons that pirates seized last week:

"Al Shabaab wanted some weapons from the Ukrainian ship but the pirates rejected their demands," a local official said. "Al Shabaab went away after they were rejected by the residents and the pirates. I am sure the group is not far from the area," he added.

In this case, the presence of U.S. Navy vessels and the impending arrival of a Russian frigate mean that transfer of weapons and ransom collection are unlikely. Still, the threat that pirates and terrorists might collude, and the reality that pirate money is going to terrorism, should probably make the U.S. a bit more wary about hastening the failure of states like Somalia.

Via Danger Room. Also see this RAND report by Peter Chalk.

--Robert Farley