The People's Liberation Army Navy carried out its 60th anniversary fleet review last week, with the United States Navy, the Russian Navy, and others in attendance. The review showcased growing Chinese naval power and served as a platform for speculation about China's plans for building aircraft carriers.
While the Chinese navy currently has numerous destroyers and submarines, its only aircraft carrier is an aging former Russian hulk purportedly called Shi Lang. Although this ship is unlikely ever to serve in a combat capacity, it could be used as a training platform for a larger carrier fleet. The problem is that there is no solid indication as of yet when such a fleet will appear. Articles about Chinese aircraft-carrier construction invariably contain sentences like "may be planning," and "up to six," neither of which tell us very much about China's actual shipbuilding plans. Aircraft carriers are an extremely expensive and time-intensive investment, and it takes quite a while to learn how to operate one.
There are some good reasons to think that China may be pursuing carriers, including a deal with Russia for the purchase of carrier-borne aircraft and the aforementioned refurbishment of Shi Lang. What we don't have, however, is any solid evidence that construction has begun or even that the Chinese have made a clear cut and irreversible commitment to push forward with carrier aviation. Absent that, I remain pretty happy with my assertion that the United States Navy will not face a serious peer competitor for a generation or longer. When you consider that Chinese naval growth has already produced balancing behavior on the part of U.S. Pacific allies, I'm really not convinced that alarm is in order.
--Robert Farley
