The National Journal Group hosted a discussion this week on the state of the presidential race, moderated by NBC News political director The National Journal Group hosted a discussion this week on the state of the presidential race, moderated by NBC News political director Chuck Todd, and featuring panelists Jim Barnes of the National Journal, David Morris of CongressDaily, former senior adviser to both Gore and Kerry Tad Devine, and GOP strategist Scott Reed. The one thing that was obvious from the panel was that the Washington political establishment types are as baffled about this race as the rest of us.
They began with a discussion of a recent National Journal poll of DC political insiders that had 63 percent of Democratic insiders and 80 percent of the Republicans banking on Clinton getting the nomination, though the panelists all seemed to be under the impression that Obama would take both South Carolina and Nevada. But factors like the 17 percent of voters in New Hampshire who said they decided who to vote for on the day of the election, the unexpectedly large turnout rates in both states so far, and the question of whether or not first-time voters will come out (they were 57 percent of the vote in Iowa, but just 19 percent in New Hampshire) make poll results fairly unreliable in this race, leaving what will happen next as pretty much anyone's guess.
And while it once seemed like the Republican side would remain a five-way contest for quite a while, the panel was in agreement that it will come down to a McCain/Huckabee face off pretty soon, unless Romney makes some sort of miraculous turnaround. But only 2 percent of the Republican insiders in the National Journal poll are picking Huckabee as the eventual nominee, putting their money instead on a McCain nomination. Since independents can vote in the Michigan primary next week and McCain fared better with Republican voters in New Hampshire than expected, he stands a better chance of winning the state than anyone anticipated before this week. Meanwhile, the panel seemed pretty sure Giuliani's cooked. "It's hard to tell if Giuliani has ever had a strategy in this campaign," said Reed. "[He] can't lose the first four and then think he'll have any support in Florida."
But what do the DC political insiders know? All of them were wrong on New Hampshire, and could very well eat crow again on these predictions.
--Kate Sheppard
