by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
I suspect that this will become my refrain during Silly Season, but I'll say it again. There's just no reason to think that polls taken in May of 2007 mean anything. Mitt Romney is ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire because Mitt Romney has been buying ads, and Giuliani and McCain have not. Out here on the blogosphere we like to think that the role of ads has been reduced to nothing. What's really happened, though, is that we've reached saturation, and if everyone's on TV, the marginal value of more TV ads has dropped. But that's not the situation eight months from the Iowa caucuses [and three months from the GOP Iowa vote-buying extravaganza straw poll].
