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POSTED ON TAP ONLINE: DIS-INEVITABILITY. Mike Tomasky does some speculating and number-crunching about the Democratic presidential primary:
Three strong candidates, all with dedicated backing and none informally anointed by the party brass or donor base, is something the Democratic Party hasn't seen in ages. One could say 1988, but even then, there weren't really three first-tier candidates (I don't think Al Gore was a first-tier candidate at that point in his career) who had the money to carry their campaigns into March. You can bet -- and this is the key thing -- that if the delegate count stays close into mid- to late February, all three campaigns will be raising plenty enough money to carry them into April. And it's possible, just possible, that after Montana and South Dakota vote on June 3, no one will have 2,600 delegates. Here, the role of the 800 or so "super-delegates," the elected officials and other potentates who can hold their commitments back until late, will loom large.Maybe, just maybe, this means a brokered convention is possible this year. Read the whole column here.--The Editors
