With New Hampshire voters headed to polls tomorrow, I think the key questions on each side are these: With New Hampshire voters headed to polls tomorrow, I think the key questions on each side are these: 1. If Barack Obama wins, as he is now expected to do, what sort of margin ratifies the narrative that emerged from Iowa that Hillary Clinton is in serious trouble, and what margin (if any) might reverse it? If he only wins by six or less, and certainly if it’s just 2 or 3, I think she’ll be able to spin it as closer and thus she’s “closing the gap” with him. That is, she’ll at that point concede that he’s the frontrunner (thus goading the media to start covering him tougher, which we should) and can position herself as the “comeback girl.” It’s not the first time a Clinton will have done that in Manchester. But if she loses by 10 or more, and certainly something like 15, I think that no matter what, a February 5 firewall (or the Clinton team’s new spin, the “Hispanic firewall) is going to be a tough strategy to execute. 2. John McCain is leading in the GOP polls, so basically any win is good for him and he immediately becomes the story instead of Huckabee, but who besides him remains in the story? Huckabee has now moved into third here, ahead of Rudy Giuliani (wasn’t his whole draw that he would open up the “blue” northeastern map?), and even Bill Kristol is talking about him in his inaugural column in the Times. Is it possible a strong Huckabee third very close on Romney’s heels makes an impact? Surely, if Huckabee finishes second to McCain, the whole notion of McCain-Huckabee as a ticket will begin to roll from tongues, and Romney is toast. But even if Romney finishes second, doesn’t he become the big loser of early January, moving Huckabee up anyway in national terms? --Tom Schaller
