Ben Smith has a nice round-up of predictions, both for tonight and for the overall race, overt at his blog. My hunch is that Clinton takes both states tonight, and though that gives her some momentum back, it's not enough to stop Obama. The way the math currently works. Clinton needs superdelegates to break heavily in her favor if she's going to win. The strategy to get them appears to be to take down Obama by going negative, thus sowing enough doubts as to his electability that the party elders go with her. The problem is, the way she's going after Obama isn't making her any new friends, and claims as to her own electability were shredded by Obama's previous 11 straight wins. What she's proving is that Obama may be vulnerable to negative campaigning, not that she's invulnerable to it, or a safer bet. Fundamentally, the Clinton campaign lacks an affirmative argument for why the superdelegates should take a risk and overrule the pledged delegate, and without that affirmative argument, they've little chance. Taking down Obama, unless they can actually dig up a disqualifying piece of oppo, isn't enough.
