State of the Union addresses are not only about rallying Americans beyind a President's agenda. They're also about making sure that agenda is in sync with public opinion. And that second function is especially true when a State of theUnion is delivered within two years of a reelection campaign.
Not surprisingly, most of what the President said was about terrorism and Iraq.If all goes well -- if the Iraqi War is short and easily contained, if we con'tget bogged down in a bitter occupation, if it seems as if we're winning the waragainst terrorism -- the President has a decent chance of being reelected.
But in his State of the Union the President also showed how sensitive he is to public opinion about his domestic agenda. In discussing his economic plan, for example, he stressed those aspects that polls show are most popular and therefore most likely to be enacted -- increasing the child tax credit from $600 to $1000 and eliminating the so-called "marriage-penalty." But hespent remarkably little time on the provision that's at the heart of his plan, that'salso the most expensive, and has drawn the least enthusiasm -- abolishing the tax on stock dividends. Apparently the President has already decided this isn'tgoing anywhere.
The President also broached a subject that Democratic presidential hopefuls arelikely to make a core issue in their campaigns. He said his Administration would aim for "high-quality health care for all." Now, he didn't dealin any specifics, and only dwealt on reform of Medicare. But the fact is, premiums foremployer-based health insurance grew a whopping 13 percent last year. And for the first time on record, spending on health care now tops 14 percent of the nation's gross domestic product.
After terrorism and the economy, health care is back on the table. One major topic of next year's presidential campaign is almost certain to be how to control the costs and spread the benefits of the best, most expensive, and least equitable health care system in the world.All in all, a smart move for the President to turn to a domestic agenda, even when all eyes are on the Middle East.
