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- First off, the big shot prognosticators continue to rank Rudy Giuliani as the Republican most likely to get nominated -- and I continue to be confused by it. He seems likely to come in, at best, third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, and he's even fading in South Carolina where he once had a commanding lead. Moreover, his momentum is in the wrong direction in all of these states. Sure, he still has a big lead in the national polls, but is there much chance that lead will survive the one-two punch of closer scrutiny (which has hurt him in Iowa and New Hampshire) and humiliating showings in early primaries? Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part, but I just don't understand in what world people won't pay attention to voting in Iowa and New Hampshire when voting in later primary states.
- Ron Paul has become the first candidate ever to benefit (or possibly be hurt by) spam generated by supporters using illegal "bot nets." These are the same networks of infected computers that fill your inbox with ads for herbal Viagra and messages from deposed African leaders.
- This weekend's New York Times Magazine has an interesting piece on Obama that highlights his popularity in the Democratic Party's foreign policy elite, but also wonders whether that support has much chance of translating to the general primary electorate.
- Finally, Chris Cillizza has some admonishing words for the overheated pundits who've been beside themselves talking about the Democratic race:
Be careful over the coming weeks and months not to paint Clinton's chances at the nomination in black and white. Anyone who tells you it is a done deal for her is just plain wrong; same goes for people who predict the Philadelphia debate was the beginning of the end for the Clinton juggernaut. Campaigns matter. And we'll relearn that lesson more than once between now and next January.
