This one is tougher! Especially after a conference call this morning with David Plouffe, who sounded pleased as he rattled off early vote numbers, which are very high, trending Dem and also contain a high percentage of sporadic or newly registered voters. Plouffe also announced that Obama will be airing ads in Georgia, North Dakota, and Arizona, seeking to push those states -- which, though red, hint at Obama support and also have good campaign organization on the ground -- into Obama's win column. But here are some problems that Obama could yet face:
-- Apathy on Election Day. People get complacent, don't go vote. People point at younger voters and newly registered voters for this one. I actually doubt this happens, between Obama's strong anti-complacency message (and that irritating/effective "CNNBC" video) and the campaign's strong GOTV operation.
-- White panic. White people get in the voting booth, panic about a black man running for president, and don't vote for him. While there are people who think this will happen, I don't. America is better than that, hope, etc.
-- Rashid Khalidi is the last straw among Obama's former associates / the L.A.Times videotape will change the election. No one knows who Khalidi, is outside of the media and high-information voters, and an even smaller universe of people cares. The attacks by McCain are reprehensible -- "neo-nazi" indeed -- but ultimately this is not an election about small stuff. This is a big stuff election.
-- McCain's taxes and socialism message will get him over the top. Maybe, maybe. But as Ambinder notes, his message is ... confused. Thus far, it's unclear that he's actually closing in the polls, but if he is, he's not closing fast enough.
--Tim Fernholz
