by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
Chris Bowers is prematurely excited about the lack of Southern Democrats weighing down a future Democratic majority in the House. In 1994, Southern Democrats represented 30% of the Democratic coalition; today, they represent ... 24% of the Democratic coalition. Should the Democrats take back Congress by a slim margin while winning three or four seats in the South, the Old Confederacy will still account for just over 23% of all Democrats. The median vote in the House—the person whose vote Democrats will need should Republicans refuse to cooperate—will be someone like Charlie Melancon (D-LA), Jim Matheson (D-UT), or Henry Cuellar (D-TX).
I don't want to downplay the value of the Speaker's gavel. Controlling the agenda in the House will make a big difference. But let's not get carried away; universal health care isn't going to come out of the 110th Congress. I'll be impressed if they can round up the votes to fix Medicare part D.
