Opposition to the California proposition that would eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry and return them to second-class citizenship continues to grow, with 55 percent planning to vote no and just 38 percent supporting it (a very bad position for an initiative). [HT: Roger Ailes.] Why, I'm beginning to wonder if predictions that the California courts will hand the state to McCain may not pan out!
I've long wondered how opponents of same-sex marriage will manage to portray a grant of rights favored by California's elected legislature, its elected governor, its tyrants in black robes elected courts, and the public in a referendum as "undemocratic." The answer, based on the article, seems to be that it will entail whining about the description of the initiative's purpose in the summary language: California Attorney General Jerry Brown wanted an accurate description, while supporters wanted a vague one. It is true, of course, that the wording of initiatives and their summaries can affect vote totals. But, of course, this is true of any initiative; and precisely for this reason an initiative isn't some completely accurate measure of a transcendent popular will. And this includes the initiative that created the unconstitutional same-sex marriage ban in the first place. The current status quo and the wording of an initiative matter; it's just these background factors are considered natural when they support traditional exclusionary policies.
The almost certain failure of Prop 8 further suggests that claims that the California courts will instigate a backlash because they overturned the "popular will" remain highly questionable. The "popular will" isn't static, and there's no entirely reliable way of measuring it, but if Prop 8 supporters want to complain about that, remember that it's equally applicable of initiatives they previously supported, too.
--Scott Lemieux
