I'm on board with a lot of what Kevin says about the forces facilitating health reform (and will soon be coming out with an absurdly long article on the subject), but it's worth taking issue with one point. Kevin writes that "The public was in favor of healthcare reform in 1994, but not overwhelmingly — and Harry & Louise were enough to turn them against the Clinton plan. Today, public opinion is far more strongly in favor of healthcare reform." I'm not actually convinced that's true. Below, I've graphed some numbers from recent CBS/New York Times polls asking respondents where they think the health system needs minor changes, fundamental changes, or a complete rebuild. The more individuals in the "rebuild" category, the better off reformers are. The data set is a bit incomplete, so a couple of years are missing, but the trends are useful:
As you can see, the number of Americans asking for a complete rebuild is historically fairly high, but not as high as it was in 1993. 1993, to be sure, was the tail end of an intense recession that would lift by 1994, and 2007's reading was taken while the macroeconomic numbers were fairly good (February, to be exact), but the numbers have remained fairly stable. The good news is that I think these readings suggest the public is -- and has been -- ready for health reform, and you simply need the right combination of presidential leadership, political strategy, and forward-thinking legislation. In other words, I think this could have worked in 1994, if not for the millions of mistakes and misjudgements. But I don't think the evidence suggests that Americans are substantially more upset over the health care situation than they were in the early 90s.
As you can see, the number of Americans asking for a complete rebuild is historically fairly high, but not as high as it was in 1993. 1993, to be sure, was the tail end of an intense recession that would lift by 1994, and 2007's reading was taken while the macroeconomic numbers were fairly good (February, to be exact), but the numbers have remained fairly stable. The good news is that I think these readings suggest the public is -- and has been -- ready for health reform, and you simply need the right combination of presidential leadership, political strategy, and forward-thinking legislation. In other words, I think this could have worked in 1994, if not for the millions of mistakes and misjudgements. But I don't think the evidence suggests that Americans are substantially more upset over the health care situation than they were in the early 90s. 
