Florida. Florida is never far from the minds of either campaign's top strategists, but Floridians had bigger fish to fry than the presidential campaign this August as the state suffered much devastation at the hands of Hurricane Charley. Conventional wisdom has it that then-President George Bush Senior and then-Governor Lawton Chiles both suffered mightily at the polls for what was widely seen as an inadequate response to 1992's Hurricane Andrew, so both Bush brothers pulled out all the stops last week to show that they feel hurricane victims' pain. According to an August 20-22 USA Today/Gallup Poll, they succeeded, with 70 percent of respondents expressing satisfaction with this year's hurricane response.
So does George W. Bush have it in the bag? Hardly. The same Gallup Poll gave Bush an ultra-narrow 48 percent to 47 percent lead in a poll with a 4-point margin of error, while an August 21 Zogby poll gave John Kerry a similarly thin 50 to 49 lead. Message: In Florida, at least, every vote still counts. Unfortunately for Kerry, Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Theresa LePore, the woman whose infamous "butterfly ballot" put Bush in the White House, is still in office, having won re-election as a Democrat in November 2000. LePore has now designed an absentee ballot for the upcoming election that critics say is even more confusing than the last one.
Iowa. In the midst of the Swift boat madness, a minor brouhaha erupted here last week when Senator Tom Harkin attacked Vice President Dick Cheney for the latter's criticism of Kerry. "When I hear this coming from Dick Cheney, who was a coward, who would not serve during the Vietnam War, it makes my blood boil,” Harkin said. After Republicans made hay about Harkin's “shrill” remarks, he was apparently removed from the roster of a scheduled four-day “Tour of Honor” featuring Max Cleland and other vets (Harkin was a Navy flier in the '60s and a reservist from 1968 to 1974). The Kerry campaign attributes Harkin's canceled appearances to “logistical” issues, while Harkin said on August 20 that he was unaware of any tour with Cleland at all.
Cheney himself came to Iowa on Tuesday, along with wife Lynne, for an invitation-only powwow in Davenport; neither Harkin's remark nor the “other priorities” besides military service that Cheney has stated as having in the '60s came up. It was his fourth appearance in the state since June. In the most recent statewide poll, conducted last week by the Republican firm Strategic Vision, Cheney garnered a 45-percent disapproval rating, as compared with 20 percent for his counterpart, John Edwards.
Generally, the polls haven't budged much in the last few weeks: The Strategic Vision poll shows Kerry leading 48 to 47 to 2 over Bush and Ralph Nader, respectively. For now the focus is on voter mobilization and get-out-the-vote efforts, and Democrats have been crowing all summer about how they're closing the state's traditional gap in party registration (as of August 1, they had cut the Republicans' typical 30,000-person advantage by almost two-thirds).
Michigan. Michigan has cemented itself as a battleground state with virtually every poll dubbing the race a toss-up. According to the most recent Rasmussen Report poll, which was released August 23, Kerry has garnered 47 percent of the vote compared with Bush's 46 percent. This means no foreseeable let up in the constant campaigning of both parties before November. Cheney was in town earlier this week at a Republican National Committee rally, and Teresa Heinz Kerry will be attending a roundtable discussion Thursday in Detroit to tout the Kerry-Edwards health-care plan.
Michigan reported a drop in payroll jobs last month, according to the most recent Labor Department statistics. Kerry could use those stats in the Great Lakes State to refute Bush's claims that the economy is back on track. Twenty-two states, up from 12 in June, reported losses, with Michigan dropping 0.57 percent. Employment statewide declined for the second consecutive month due to seasonal layoffs. According to Bruce Weaver of Michigan's Department of Labor and Economic Growth, the seasonal job cuts were larger than normal in auto-related manufacturing and local government education.
Michigan's Board of State Canvassers made two volatile decisions this week that could help Kerry's chances of bringing this swing state into the blue. Conservatives banking on getting an anti-gay-marriage amendment on the ballot were disappointed when the board rejected petitions in a 2-to-2 decision. The board also deadlocked in a 2-to-2 vote along partisan lines on whether to accept 50,000 signatures to put Nader on the ballot. The state Democratic Party had cried foul earlier this week over Nader's bid to get on the ballot as an independent candidate. The controversy stems from the 45,000 petition signatures that were collected by the state Republican Party. The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals will have the final say on whether Nader makes the ballot in the coming weeks.
Missouri. Kerry will dispatch Edwards to campaign in St. Charles later this week in an attempt to make inroads with voters in this suburban Republican stronghold. This is perhaps a wise move: Although St. Charles went for Bush by nearly 14 percentage points in 2000, a poor economy has sewn the seeds of discontent among some conservative voters here. It looks doubtful that Kerry can take St. Charles, but it is still a valuable stop on the trail. What's more, its proximity to heavily Democratic St. Louis makes a visit there something of a twofer. And by venturing into a city that is a favorite of Bush's on the eve of the Republican national convention, the Kerry campaign draws extra attention to itself while putting its opponent on the defensive.
“John Kerry and John Edwards feel they can do well in places where national Democratic candidates have not often ventured," Kerry campaign spokesman Bill Burton told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. And, of course, for John Kerry and John Edwards, persuading swing voters in one of the most hotly contested states in the nation is reason enough to make many visits to Missouri -- even the Republican parts.
Ohio. According to a University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research poll conducted in mid-August, Kerry and Bush are locked in a statistical dead heat. This should come as no surprise, as both campaigns have been exchanging a relentless series of tit for tats in the Buckeye State.
On Tuesday, Youngstown Major George McKelvey, a Democrat, announced his endorsement for the Republican ticket. For this turning of the coat, it appears that Mayor McKelvey will be rewarded with an invitation to New York next week.
That same day, the executive secretary of the AFL-CIO in Cleveland, John Ryan, railed against the Bush administration's new overtime rules to a crowd of workers. This comes after Teresa Heinz Kerry tried to shore up the support of the Ohio Coalition of Labor Union Women on Monday in Columbus.
Meanwhile, a brewing scandal that implicates much of Ohio's Republican leadership in fund-raising improprieties has been gaining national attention. On Tuesday, The Washington Post speculated that this scandal might suppress Republican turnout in November, as voters feel threatened by a majority party -- both in Columbus and Washington -- that perceives itself to be able to act with impunity.
Tennessee. Tennessee isn't a battleground state -- yet. But that may change as November approaches, according to state Democratic Party Chairman Randy Button. He's told the Nashville City Paper and Memphis' Commercial Appeal that the national campaign will make a run at the state's 11 electoral votes in October, a late push to snatch a state in which neither candidate has spent much time or money.
Within the next week, it should be clearer whether or not Kerry intends to make Bush work for the Volunteer State. The two candidates will appear on back-to-back days at the American Legion's national convention, Bush on August 31 and Kerry on September 1, just as the Republican national convention is picking up steam. Kerry's remarks will be aimed at national press coverage, as a prime-time rejoinder to the Republican gathering, but the events surrounding the stop should be telling. If Kerry intends to contest Tennessee, he'll almost certainly set up campaign events elsewhere in the state to make his presence felt while the Republicans are otherwise occupied.
Compiled by the Prospect staff. Click
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