Hudson, New Hampshire -- It is almost primary day, and I'm pressing flesh with Granite Staters. Not hand shaking, mind you, but really squashed in there between them. Most are sporting Bush 2000 paraphernalia and straining to snap pictures. They are cheering, and I am starting to think that I'd better drop everything and start working for George W.
Not that I think Bush is the best candidate -- or even the best Republican. In fact, just three hours ago, McCain gave a performance in Peterborough that made Bush look like an amateur.
The large hall was as packed and revved as a Nine Inch Nails concert. The band was playing "Johnny B. Goode," and when McCain bounced up on stage, he was doing everything he could not to boogie. Cindy McCain succumbed entirely, bopping as her husband grinned and thrust his fists into the air.
Despite being completely rehashed, his standard comedy routine (you know, the one about him being at 3 percent in the polls with a 5-percent margin of error, and the one in which he jokes that since Morris Udall, Barry Goldwater, and Bruce Babbitt all ran for president from Arizona, his may be the only state in which parents don't tell their kids they can grow up to be president) got lots of laughs.
McCain even had fun during the long question-and-answer session, stretching to hold the microphone up for a query from a man in a shark costume. In response to an NRA-style question about what he would do to preserve Second Amendment rights, McCain said he'd preserve those rights because the Constitution requires it. But he continued by defying the questioner and most of his party, unflappedly calling for background checks and fingerprinting technology that ensures no one can shoot a gun but its registered owner. And when a woman looked displeased with an answer, he invited her to ask a follow-up -- a bold move in front of the conflict-hungry press corps.
McCain was not daunted by the legions of reporters. In fact, he recycled his old press joke, affectionately labeling the media communists and Trotskyites all. (One reporter for a pinko publication privately admitted an utter infatuation with the candidate; even I -- at least as "red" as the rest -- had to keep chanting "antigay, anti-abortion flat-taxer" to myself to keep from impulsively slapping a McCain sticker on my forehead.) The event ended with supporters shooting streamers and confetti into the air, giving it the distinct feel of a victory party.
Compare that to this Bush event three hours later: There is certainly a crowd. And the audience cheers on the frequent occasions he mentions boosting God and cutting taxes. (Would it be possible to cut God's taxes? Just a thought.) But the room is smaller, and Bush gives a short speech, taking no questions. By the counts of trail-weary reporters, he hasn't changed his speech since he started peddling his compassion last year. When he says he has a good record, it sounds like he's trying to convince himself.
The Right-Wing Establishment is milling about. The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes presides over the event from atop the bleachers in the back (perhaps doodling distasteful Standard covers in his notebook). FOX News's conservative commentator Brit Hume is scowling outside. And Bush's operatives are desperately spinning.
Here's how they explain the fact that they are behind McCain in the New Hampshire polls and losing their lead against Gore: The McCain figures aren't right because they over-count independents, and the Gore numbers are wrong because he just got a temporary boost from sitting behind the president for two hours during the State of the Union address. (Never mind that many Republicans will argue they can beat Gore because people hate Clinton.) Even if McCain does win, they argue, he has a one-state strategy, while Bush has a 50-state one.
Comparing final performances, it seems that Bush is only winning because he's winning. In fact, Iowa polls confirm this: A large percentage of GOP voters said the most important criteria for choosing a candidate was his ability to win in the general election. Almost all of those voters picked Bush. For those who named issues as criteria, the vote was mixed.
So irreverent McCain has gone from quixotic to keen. Gore is gaining on Bush in the polls. If either one of them deposes the Chosen One, the Republican establishment (synonymous with the Right Wing Conspiracy) is going to get pissed. The establishment loathes McCain. He has always bucked the party, especially on campaign finance reform, which party leaders believe would take away their election advantage. The only person they like less is Gore, for obvious ideological reasons and because he's the Enemy Number One's vice president.
And after eight years of Clinton's unstoppable popularity and a year of stratospheric hopes, it would take Keyesian rhetoric to describe their wrath if they lose. They have tens of millions to go after McCain and the Democrats. And if Gore gets into the White House, they have an attack machine, well-oiled by practice on everything from Whitewater to Monica. If it doesn't already, the very mention of the word saffron will make you nauseous. We've seen what they've done with eight years in the White House wilderness. It suddenly occurs to me that I can't bear to see what they would do with four more.
So until Election Day, I'm joining Team Bush. Sacrificing the possibility of having a president of my political persuasion (or a less objectionable Republican win the nomination) is a small price to pay for not having to watch the fury of a Republican establishment scorned.
