Tuesday was supposed to be a joyous day for Rahm Emanuel, the most high-profile and charismatic candidate seeking to replace retiring Richard M. Daley as mayor of America's third-largest city. His campaign was announcing an endorsement from the Teamsters Joint Council 25, which represents roughly 100,000 members in Illinois and Northwest Indiana, including 35,000 who both live and work in Chicago. It is the first major labor group to have tossed its weight behind Emanuel since he jumped into the race in early October and a sign that his political appeal is widening.
The adoration many Teamsters felt for their tough-talking candidate of choice was evident at the announcement ceremony. President John Coli praised Emanuel as someone who "will not turn a blind eye to working people." "There he is! There he is!" screamed one food-distribution worker as he watched Emanuel hop out of a black SUV. "You're going to win, man!"
Whether that prediction is realized now depends on seven Illinois judges. Just 24 hours earlier, Emanuel received word that an Illinois Appellate Court ruled him ineligible to compete in February's municipal election because he does not meet Illinois' residency requirement.
The news shattered two assumptions widely held by national observers: that an Emanuel victory was predetermined and that the legal challenge to his residency was a parochial political stunt. With less than 30 days until the first round of voting is scheduled to begin, Emanuel is in for the legal and political fight of his life. For everyone else, the challenge has sucked most of the oxygen out of a race that could have been one of the most exciting and consequential succession battles in the city's history. The democratic process, unfortunately, has morphed into a procedural court drama.
It was never supposed to be easy for Rahm. Chicago news junkies were hopeful that Mayor Daley's imminent departure from City Hall would set off a raucous campaign pitting the city's political heavyweights, each with a competing ideology and power base, against each other. After all, running "the city that works" is not an opportunity that comes around every day. Daley has held the position since 1989, the longest tenure in Chicago history. His father, who sat in the mayor's chair from 1955 to 1976, held the previous record.
Chicago itself is at a critical juncture. The second Daley administration gave new energy to Chicago's business district and adjacent neighborhoods, but wide chunks of the city missed out on that wave of growth. With a budget deep in the red despite several controversial asset sales, the city's recycling program in shambles, and major investments still needed in transit and other infrastructure, the time is ripe for a visionary leader to make his or her mark.
But a funny thing happened on the way to Election Day: Virtually every major candidate with a sophisticated political operation decided to sit the race out. Attorney General Lisa Madigan -- arguably the most popular politician in Illinois, including the president -- chose to stay in her prosecutorial post for a third term. Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart went so far as to hire distinguished Democratic consultant Joe Trippi to help with strategy before bowing out, citing family concerns. U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez started circulating nomination petitions but eventually told supporters he wanted to focus all of his energy on immigration reform. His ambitious colleague, U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., wisely declined after a a slew of personal and political scandals, and the City Council's most qualified and appealing candidate, Toni Preckwinkle, was recently elected Cook County Board president.
In the end, the field shrunk to six (including Rahm) and features a slew of candidates most voters don't seem thrilled to support. Gery Chico is the Daley machine's choice: He has held numerous high-profile positions in the Daley administration and has maintained a close relationship with Alderman Ed Burke, chair of the Finance Committee and a powerful mayoral ally. On policy issues like education and development, he's Daley 3.0, a major liability in a city where the mayor's popularity has justifiably plummeted since he was re-elected in 2007.
Former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, the only major female in contention, was anointed the "consensus African American" candidate by a group of black civic and religious leaders. But polls show her unfavorables are high, she's raised a paltry $445,000 in campaign contributions thus far (compared with $2.4 million for Chico and $10.5 million for Emanuel), and her agenda has been vague, at best. (She insists that she can make $1 billion in cuts to a $6 billion city budget, for example, but won't tell reporters from where those unrealistic savings would be derived.) Moseley Braun is also deep in personal debt, which has led some political observers to question whether she entered the race solely because the mayor's office promises a steady paycheck.
The list is rounded out by two political neophytes and Miguel Del Valle, an earnest progressive with a relatively modest résumé (he's currently city clerk) and low name recognition, and you've got a ballot lacking in firepower. It's no surprise that most of the city's largest labor unions, which could offer one candidate an enormous advantage in both the ground game and fundraising, have stayed neutral in the mayoral race, choosing instead to devote resources to several aldermanic candidates.
To his credit, Emanuel has taken advantage of the thin field, projecting an air of confidence throughout his steady, if uninspiring, campaign. The Democrat hired a hungry group of campaign staffers (many with D.C. pedigrees), raised gobbles of cash right before Illinois' new campaign-finance reform law went into effect on Jan. 1, and lined up support from aldermen in his old congressional district with ground troops to spare. Using Obama administration initiatives as models, he's unveiled a steady stream of small-bore policy proposals: a privately funded "Race to the Top" fund, a two-year ban on lobbying for retiring political appointees, and a comprehensive wellness program he says would drive down health-care costs in the public sector. Bill Clinton even swung through town to give "Chicago for Rahm" his presidential imprimatur.
It's the No Drama Rahm approach, and it seems to be working: Several polls give Emanuel a commanding lead over his rivals, with a plurality of support in every major racial group. Before Monday, the only real question was whether Emanuel would win outright next month or fall just short of the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a run-off election in April.
Now, the question hanging over the Windy City is whether he'll get a chance to run at all.
While the initial residency hearing held in December featured a cast of kooky, often incoherent objectors and veered regularly into obscure minutiae, the central question dogging Emanuel was never clear cut. The Illinois Municipal Code is stringent, holding that local candidates must have "resided in the municipality at least one year preceding the election." ("Active duty military" members are exempted.)
Illinois' election code, however, is more forgiving, providing an exemption for "government service to candidates running for state office." Because Emanuel lived in Washington, D.C., during 2009 and 2010 and had rented out his home in Chicago, opponents argue, he should not be eligible. But supporters point out that the Emanuels left valuable family possessions in storage at their house while renting it out (as well as continuing to pay property taxes). The Chicago Board of Elections voted in Emanuel's favor, and a Cook County Circuit Court judge upheld their decision.
The decision on Tuesday came from the appellate court, so the case will now proceed to the Illinois Supreme Court. Justices have not given their timetable yet but they will deliberate on an expedited schedule. Early voting begins on Monday, and the Court has requested that the city keep Emanuel's name on the ballot while they consider the case.
In a comment that felt more hopeful than assured, Emanuel reiterated Tuesday morning that he's "confident in the argument we're making" and will be "doubling down" on his campaigning in the next several days. (He says he's lost seven pounds in three months on the trail.)
Under Daley's dictatorial watch, big businesses have sucked up expensive taxpayer subsidies, Chicago's budget was blown to smithereens, and city officials largely failed to ignite sustainable growth or protect the most vulnerable in struggling neighborhoods. Progressives dying for a spirited debate about how to shape the future of their city, however, are left with a flawed field unwilling to grapple honestly with these pressing concerns. It's a giant missed opportunity, and one that may not present itself again for a long while.
