(Flickr/The White House)
Ahead of the State of the Union (and all its attendant chatter), it's worth noting that these have little effect on the public's perception of the president. Here's Gallup with an analysis from last year:
Bill Clinton was the only president in 35 years to see a measurable bump in his approval rating following the State of the Union. Even then, it was a modest 3-point gain that had little impact on his ability to move legislation through Congress.
Far from helping, the State of the Union is more likely to hurt a president's approval rating; Carter and George W. Bush saw a 1-point drop in their approval, while George H.W. Bush saw a significant 4-point decline. Even Reagan -- the so-called Great Communicator -- saw an average drop of 1 point. There is simply little evidence that the State of the Union moves public opinion, which isn't a big surprise, since in general, the president is rarely able to move the public, even in the most favorable conditions.
That said, while the president's speech does little for the public, it can -- and will -- gear up legislators, interest groups, and party elites for the legislative session. By signaling his priorities, the president gives his party a better sense of where he wants to go, what he wants to do, and what he is willing to compromise. After Tuesday, when we're assessing the speech, we should shy away from the public, and watch lawmakers, fundraisers, and lobbyists for their reactions. Their response will determine a large part of how the president, and Congress, goes forward.
-- Jamelle Bouie
