Spencer is right that the underlying cause of this conflict has little to do with the type of government in either Russia or Georgia, but the fact that Russia is autocratic has everything to do with the mechanics of the conflict. Would Russia have pursued a military conflict there if they had a real opposition party in Parliament -- especially after their national experiences in Chechnya or Afghanistan -- or if Putin had lost the election? Would they have been able to surprise the world with their military deployment?
If Russia had successfully incorporated itself into the international community in the last two decades, the underlying conflict would be there but perhaps it would have been pursued in non-violent ways. These aren't necessarily considerations in the immediate response to the crisis, but getting caught up in the short-term realpolitik of the situation while forgetting what the U.S.'s long-term strategic interests are has gotten us in trouble in the past, and I'm not inclined to forget where the U.S.'s unspoken policy of ignoring regime type differences back in the day got us.
--Tim Fernholz
