by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
I hate to say it, but there aren't many likely or unlikely futures where Nick Lampson (D-TX 22) retains Tom DeLay's old seat. It's a much more partisan seat than any other seat Democrats won in 2006, save maybe Jerry McNerney in CA-11. Lampson's win was much more analogous to the guy who took out Dan Rostenkowski (D-IL 5) than to George Nethercutt's (R-WA 5) victory over then speaker Tom Foley (D, and no relation to Mark Foley). If there were a Democratic President, or an almost ironclad guarantee of victory in '08, you could encourage Lampson to stay and promise to make him Assistant Secretary of Whatever. But we don't live in that world. Lampson's a conservative Democrat and can raise enough money for the Senate race, so if you're going to be a long shot either way, why not let him swing for the fences?
That said, clearing the field for Lampson to take on Senator Jon "box turtle" Cornyn (R) doesn't seem like a great idea. It's going to be a long shot whether Lampson or some other pol gets the nomination, so you might as well rely on some actual voters ... you know, "the public" ... to help you figure out which candidate is more attractive to the public.
