Last spring, at the height of a national obsession with Barack Obama, some Republican elected officials weren't sleeping soundly at night.
Not the hardcore conservatives; they knew their base and their districts. It was the moderate Republicans -- the ones who make a habit of working across the aisle, whose districts often contain more independent and Democratic voters than Republicans and will likely go for Obama -- who were concerned. While the presidential contest remains close, signs around the country point toward Democratic success at the congressional level. How better to stave off this challenge than by featuring Obama himself in your political advertisement?
Two Republicans, Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon and Rep. Christopher Shays of Connecticut both tried this tack, invoking Obama to cast themselves as bipartisan dealmakers who know a good thing when they see it. It's not a dynamic you see as much on the Democratic side; though there are Democrats with conservative constituencies, they are often conservative enough that simply distancing themselves from the Obama campaign is enough to keep them safe. But these Republicans in swing districts have set themselves up to the point where they can't simply remain independent -- they have to draw voters from the other party.
Start with Smith, a close friend of John McCain's, who is being challenged by the speaker of the Oregon State House of Representatives, Jeff Merkley. Smith's ad, which ran early in the summer, noted that the incumbent senator had joined with Obama on a bipartisan energy bill. The Obama campaign issued a statement appreciating Smith's respect for the Democratic senator's bipartisan record but emphasizing that Obama supports Merkley in the race.
"[Smith] did it because he is brutally out of step from Oregon," Merkley's spokesperson, Matt Canter, told the Prospect, adding that there are 220,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the district. Merkley's campaign is making the argument that Smith isn't the bipartisan legislator Oregonians think they've been electing, noting that Smith voted for the Iraq War before coming to oppose it after the 2006 elections, supported the Bush administration's economic policies, and voted against a woman's right to choose. In response, they're offering Merkley's record as a state legislator, including spearheading the global warming legislation that led to his endorsement by the Sierra Club.
But after the Obama ad ran, Smith put his bipartisan message on the back burner. Smith has been running negative ads against Merkley, including one blaming Merkley for the release of a serial rapist, which the media has compared to the legendary Willie Horton ad. Merkley's camp has responded that he voted for extending the statute of limitations and mandatory life imprisonment for rapists; he has the endorsement of the State Police union. Freedom's Watch and Employeefreedom.org, two conservative political groups, are also advertising against the Democrat. Meanwhile, the local press is investigating claims that Smith's business has employed illegal immigrants, adding another wrinkle to the race.
Thus far, it doesn't seem that Smith's tactic has paid off (or perhaps he simply didn't stick with his original message long enough). A new internal Merkley campaign poll provided to the Prospect showed him with a two-point lead; a recent Rasmussen poll has the challenger down one point, 46 to 45, and winning among independents. While it's clear this election is going to be hard-fought, it seems that the demographics -- and Obama himself -- are on Merkley's side.
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Across the country in Connecticut, Chris Shays had a similar problem -- a pro-Obama atmosphere and a swing district. He responded with an advertisement that featured both Obama and John McCain, claiming that in Shays, voters would find the "hope of Obama" and the "straight talk of John McCain."
"These are qualities that Chris Shays has," said his campaign manager, Michael Sohn. "There's nothing to sell about it; he's done it." Sohn went on to detail Shays' relationship with the last several presidents, both Republican and Democrat. But Shays' recent behavior has struck a different note. He is the co-chair of McCain's Connecticut campaign and went on TV at the Republican National Convention saying, "Barack Obama has no record, none, zero, zip," and defending Sarah Palin. "Anytime the Democrats are questioned, they call it an attack," Shays said.
Shay has a reason to resent the Dems; his seat in Connecticut has been a major target for Democrats in the last several election cycles. He is the last liberal Republican in New England, and replacing him with a Democrat is considered a reachable goal by the national party in a district where Democratic voters have an edge on Republicans (unaffiliated voters make up the largest block, about 40 percent of the electorate). Thus far, Shays has survived, besting the Democratic challenger by small margins in 2004 and 2006.
This year, Shays' challenger is Jim Himes, a former Rhodes scholar and Goldman Sachs banker who worked most recently at an affordable-housing agency before becoming a town official. Himes' campaign is focused on Shays' support for the Bush administration's policies surrounding the war in Iraq and on the economy. According to Michael Sachse, Himes' spokesperson, Chris Shays "said that our economy is fundamentally strong, no one can disagree with that. We do disagree with that, and that is the crux of what this election is about in this district."
Both of these races are now aping the messaging of the national contest: the Democrats tying their opponents to George W. Bush's failed policies, the Republicans arguing they are in fact bipartisan pragmatists. The difference is where McCain can rely on support in GOP-leaning areas; the incumbents are going to have to bend over backward to convince their Democratic-leaning districts they aren't tied to Bush -- or McCain.
It's hard to say how well Shays' approach is working right now. There isn't any recent public polling on the Shays-Himes race, and neither campaign offered specific numbers; most observers believe it will once again be a close race. (Shays won his last race by less than 6,000 votes.) Dan Malloy, the longtime Democratic mayor of Stamford, said the race will go down to the wire but observed the more-than-usual amount of excitement around the Democratic Party.
"If it comes down to people who vote because Barack Obama is on the list, if that's who's going to decide, then Himes wins," Malloy said, pointing specifically to Bridgeport, Connecticut, as a Democratic stronghold thanks to its African American and Latino population. Shays earned enough votes there to beat expectations during his successful 2006 run. I called the registrar of voters in Bridgeport, who told me that close to 4,000 new voters had recently registered, a higher number than in previous years.
"Why does he have the picture of Obama on his ads?" Malloy asks. "Now you have the answer, don't you?"
