One of the political subthemes of the past few days is the continuing emergence of the rank-and-file House Republicans as a political force in their own right, and not one whose incentives are particularly well understood. Lots of Democrats have a mental model of Republican politicians that looks something like George W. Bush or Mitch McConnell. Essentially, puppets of business with an overlay of Christian conservative populism. Over the past few years, however, we've seen an increasing chasm open up between the Republican leadership -- which basically does exhibit those tendencies -- and its political base. You saw it in 2006, when Republican congressmen bucked their leadership and the White House to kill immigration reform -- which was a rather high priority for the business community. You're seeing the same alignment of forces on the bailout proposal. This is all preamble to linking to Mark Schmitt's article on the House Republicans, which makes a lot of good points. In particular, he notes that "the House Republicans now represent white Americans of modest means -- the very opposite of the 'investor class.' (Most of the Republicans who represented affluent districts were wiped out in 2006.) They are the ones whose phones are ringing off the hook with opposition to the bailout, the ones already saddled with an unpopular president, an unpopular war, and an uninspiring presidential nominee." Remember the Ownership Society? This group is now the debtor class. They're not poor, but they're struggling, and they're angry, and they're represented by Republicans. Towards the end of the piece, Mark raises the possibility of this splintering the Republican coalition. It's possible. But more concretely, you're almost certain to see a greater distance open up between House and Senate Republicans. The upper chamber has folks like Bob Bennett and Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch and Judd Gregg. These are Republicans who like to have their name on legislation, who are quietly appalled by some of the trends in their party, and who are beginning to tire of the dysfunctionality and know-nothing extremism on exhibit within their own ranks. They are economic conservatives, business conservatives, who aren't finding their party a responsible home for their ideas. This is why Grassley is building S-CHIP compromises and Bennett is co-sponsoring Democratic health care legislation. It's not making them liberals, but it's making them more open to partnering with liberals in order to move legislation. And that's an important trend. If Obama wins, the success of his agenda may rely on the depth of their dissatisfaction. They might get him to 60.
