It turns out that Obama is considering plans to give a speech from a Muslim capital sometime during his first term, and Helene Cooper thinks it will be Cairo.
...Egypt is perfect. It's certainly Muslim enough, populous enough and relevant enough. It's an American ally, but there are enough tensions in the relationship that the choice will feel bold. The country has plenty of democracy problems, so Mr. Obama can speak directly to the need for a better democratic model there. It has got the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist organization that has been embraced by a wide spectrum of the Islamic world, including the disenfranchised and the disaffected.
I'm of two minds about this. As a former Cairo resident, and a fan of U.S. outreach in the Muslim world, I'm glad that the president-elect's transition team is considering making a bold gesture, but I think it is coming too soon. In order for this to be more than simply a speech, there needs to be a major change in U.S. policy towards dictators like Egypt's Hosni Mubarak as well as some kind of statement on moving forward on Israel-Palestine negotiations.
It is tough to overstate how bad the U.S. looked the last time there was a high profile speech in Cairo. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice spoke there in 2005, demanding that Egyptian elections be free and fair. Of course, the main opposition parties were banned from participating and the elections were stricken with violence and fraud. Mubarak's torturing regime went forward without any consequences from the United States. (why were pundits so worked up about Obama's plan to negotiate with dictators, again?) A chastened Rice returned in 2007 and met with Egyptian officials without pushing any kind of democracy agenda or making many public remarks.
The hypocrisy of Rice's visits combined with the U.S.'s backing of Mubarak infuriated Egyptians, and anyone in the Middle East who looked to the U.S. as a democratic example. Even if Obama is speaking about outreach to Muslims or Israel-Palestine and not democracy or the U.S.-Egypt relationship, the context of his remarks will undermine whatever he says without a real effort to address the problems of our Middle East policy.
Obviously, America's relationship with Egypt and Mubarak is complicated by the issue of Israel, and the fact that the transition of power when the now 80-year Mubarak passes on will be a time of instability. Nonetheless, the U.S. has got to start showing that it will back democratic reformers in a real way. But setting up and executing that kind of policy will take planning and a lot of patient diplomacy in the region, and a willingness to commit development and other resources. It's not something that's easy to accomplish in 100 days also spent on the economic crisis, withdrawal from Iraq, an energy plan, health care and whatever else is jockeying for position on the agenda. If Obama tries to make a gesture without the substantial policy change to back it, it will be a big mistake. Perhaps I'm wrong and Obama can bring substantial policy plans quickly. But the administration should make sure that it is ready to show tangible improvements when and if Obama does make this speech.
--Tim Fernholz
