I'm going to jump in with Matt here and question the emerging CW that Mitt Romney's mormonism will bar him from the nomination. Even assuming the Christian Right doesn't fall madly in love with Mitt, we're not looking at an election where they're going to coalesce behind a frontrunner. At best, they'll unite behind the thuggish George Allen to stop John McCain. At worst, they'll splinter amongst Allen, Sam Brownback, McCain, and a couple others.
Too often, folks think of primaries as vote-based affairs. They're not. They're about survival. If 82% of the electorate votes against you, but if they fracture split into five equal camps, you win. Moreover, the Christian Right's power is partially predicated on a myth: that of 2000. But in 2000, the GOP was desperate for victory after eight years of Clinton, and so they united early around Bush. McCain mounted an unexpected primary challenge, but he fought from the left, and since nobody was splitting Bush's vote on the right, the maverick had no serious chance after the independent-friendly environs of the Northeast.
This time, there'll be a slew of serious contenders battling for the right's affection on an array of issues. The Christians will be more split, and less dictatorial over the outcome. If they're blackballing Romney, the media will naturally rally to him, potentially attracting additional voters to his ad hoc coalition. Now, he may or may not win, but it won't be because South Carolina wields a veto.
