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It's heartening to see that folks are coming around to my argument that Michele Bachmann is going to be a formidable force in the Republican primaries, coming as it does at the same time that Mitt Romney is moving from "the closest thing there is to a front-runner" to "the front-runner." A new Gallup poll has him at 24 percent, well above non-candidate Sarah Palin at 16 percent and joke candidate Herman Cain at 9 percent. And you can bet that Romney is perfectly pleased about Bachmann's presence-- all the better for him if the candidate of the base turns out to be someone no one really thinks can beat Barack Obama.Way back in 2003, I wrote a piece for the Washington Post (no longer online) arguing that primary races almost always follow the same script:
Ultimately, reporters want a field with only two main candidates. A clash between two rivals is dramatic; a conflict between eight or 10 is cacophony. The story goes something like this: In the first stage -- the one we may be moving past now -- reporters examine the candidates, following Lenin's advice to probe with bayonets as they search out weaknesses that could keep each one from capturing voters' hearts. In the second stage, a Front-Runner materializes, and the media hail his dexterity and charm, then begin to detail his record and plumb the recesses of his psyche. In recent elections, this has happened long before the first vote is cast in the Iowa caucuses. In stage three, the Challenger is declared, his charms are explored and speculation becomes rife as to whether he will be able to overcome the Front-Runner's advantages (which the media have helped create). The second- and third-tier candidates grow frustrated and bitter as their efforts to garner attention fail. Finally, the Front-Runner beats back the Challenger and emerges victorious.So congratulations, Mitt Romney, on being the 2012 Republican presidential nominee! OK, it doesn't always work that way -- the guy in the White House managed to win the nomination, despite the fact that Hillary Clinton was the early front-runner -- but it usually does. It happens because primaries are governed by momentum and self-fulfilling prophecies abound. If you're the guy elite reporters decide is the front-runner, you get more attention than the other candidates, that attention means you tick up in the polls, which means you find it easier to raise money, then you use that money to air more ads, and so on. If the press decides you're going nowhere, that cycle runs in mirror image. Now that Romney seems clearly ahead, the other candidates are going to start sniping at him, as Tim Pawlenty did yesterday. You can bet that a bunch of them will attack Romney at the debate that takes place tonight in New Hampshire. Which means that for the moment, Romney will be axis around which the campaign revolves.Every presidential primary battle since 1972 -- with one exception, when upstart George McGovern prevailed that year over Ed Muskie -- has followed the rough contours of this script.
