ROVE'S LEGACY. I’ve always had a grudging respect for Karl Rove because he knows the history of partisan realignments, and views contemporary American politics through the lens of that history. When my book came out last autumn (and before the 2006 midterm results), I sent Rove a signed copy along with a letter telling him that, while I disagreed with his policies and politics, I thought he might appreciate a take on current politics that suggests we might be headed for a realignment for the Democrats if the Republicans continued to marginalize themselves. He sent me a nice note telling me I was wrong and he would help sell me some books by saying so publicly. (So far he has not delivered and, post-2006, I suspect I'll have to keep waiting because it turns out that I, not he, had "the math" that mattered in 2006.) You may recall that during the 2000 election Rove liked to draw comparisons between the present decade and changes that occurred during the 1890s. That is, George W. Bush's 2000 election was supposed to be 1896 all over again, triggering an era of Republican dominance. Of course, when you go back to those winning maps for Republican William McKinley of 1896 and 1900--courtesy of Dave Leip's indispensable site, but confusing because Leip uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans--and compare them with 2000 and 2004, you notice they are eerily similar, if inverted: The Republican-won states then are the Democratic-won states now, and vice versa. To his credit, Rove understood that expanding the electorate is essential to any realignment, and thusly tried to expand the Republican coalition to include significant shares of Hispanic voters by promoting immigration reform despite the recalcitrance of many of the same base conservatives he also cultivated on moral and religious issues. Maybe, in Rove’s defense, there was no realignment formula available--the gains of expansion and inclusion were ineluctably at odds with the insular, exclusive disposition of core conservatives. Still, I think Rove’s long-term legacy will be the marginalization of Republicans to a southern-dominant, yet southern-confined party, because for every immigration reform attempt or Medicare prescription drug benefit, there is an Iraq war or Terry Schiavo episode. And for that, Democrats should be applauding Rove’s arrival in Washington as much if not more than his departure, for he and the presidential Frankenstein he created helped preclude the very majority Rove hoped to produce. --Tom Schaller
