With Bachman-Turner Overdrive's "Taking Care of Business" blaring from the loud speaker, Rudy Giuliani stormed into the Columbia Restaurant in the bayside resort community of Sarasota, Florida, Saturday morning. The music was supposed to illustrate the newest bent to Giuliani's campaign here, emphasizing that the man who built his campaign on September 11 and national security can handle economic security as well. But for most voters, it's too little, too late. The man who banked his entire candidacy on Floridians buying into his self-fashioned image of "America's Mayor" is sounding lost.
Giuliani has plunged from 30 percent support in Florida last October to 16 percent today, while rivals John McCain and Mitt Romney have bounced to a tie at 23 percent. Giuliani's campaign thus far has been based almost entirely on the image of a tough-as-nails mayor who saved New York first from crime and then from terrorists. It has been a campaign of nostalgia and fear, meant to appeal to the large population of New York expatriates and gated-community dwellers who laud Giuliani as "one tough SOB," as a supporter put it after the Sarasota event, someone who will defend America in "the terrorists' war on us." But with the struggling economy and concerns about the future rising to the top of the agenda, Floridians seem to be looking for something more than nostalgia.
"[I] was initially very strong for Giuliani, because of his experience on 9-11. And when the chaos starts, I want somebody who's been around chaos before and proven they can handle it," said Jay Strack, an author, minister, and motivational speaker based in Orlando who is now backing Mike Huckabee. "But I need to also know, what are we going to do now? That was 2001. What are you going to do now? What's your vision for the future?"
In recent appearances Giuliani has put on a chipper veneer, dropping repetitive references to September 11 and beseeching crowds to recognize him as the most "positive" candidate in the field. His stump speech now largely focuses on economic issues. He leads with talk about the tax plan he unveiled on Jan. 10, which promises large tax cuts, leadership based on "pro-growth principles," and a tax form simplified to a single page. But even with the increased economic emphasis, he offers voters little more than platitudes.
"Let me tell you, if you elect me president, we'll have a growth economy, we'll have an economy where America is growing and getting stronger," he told the Sarasota crowd. "I have the most experience of anyone who is running for president in guiding an economy." He's thrown in promises about increasing global trade as well, departing from his tough-on-terror spiel to try a new tune: "We're not by nature a warrior country. The essential nature of an American is to sell you something."
Over the past few days, he's started calling for a national catastrophe fund, a direct appeal to voters concerned about rising home insurance rates in a state where hurricanes and floods are regular events. The fund is a pet issue of Gov. Charlie Crist, and Giuliani has been pounding on the idea, putting out television ads claiming that "only Rudy has a plan to lower insurance rates" and equating natural disaster relief with his 9-11 experience. He's also started throwing in references to energy independence, promises about increased funding for the space program, and school choice, but he leaps from one idea to the next, each underdeveloped.
In press appearances, he refuses to answer questions about his rivals or his own strategy, deferring to statements about how he thinks "this election should be about positive things" and chastising McCain and Romney for attacks on each others' record. "I think it would be better if we all remained positive," he told reporters. When a reporter asked about whether his retooled campaign style is a result of his plunging poll numbers, he rephrased his line once again: "I believe that I'm being positive because that's the way you win
But the last-ditch efforts to change his message appear fruitless in a state that has gone sour on Rudy.
On Saturday, Giuliani was the guest of honor at the Orange County Republican Party's annual Lincoln Dinner, an $150-a-plate event in Orlando. Congressmen Tom Feeney, Florida Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer, and Attorney General Bill McCollum were among the honored attendees listed on the invitation, as was Gov. Charlie Crist, whose endorsement the candidates have been vying for. But that evening, Crist announced his endorsement of John McCain, and instead headed to the Pinellas County Lincoln Dinner where McCain was scheduled to speak.
It was the second major slight for Giuliani in as many days, as Sen. Mel Martinez endorsed McCain on Friday. A popular Republican in the state, especially with Cuban voters in southern Florida, Martinez's endorsement is expected to boost McCain's numbers in the state. McCain has of late been stealing much of Rudy's thunder here on national security, hosting a roundtable in Tampa on Friday that included security leaders respected on the right like former director of homeland security Tom Ridge, Sen. Lindsey Graham, retired U.S. Navy admirals Jerry Johnson and Leighton "Snuffy" Smith, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, and James Woolsey, director of the CIA under Bill Clinton. Ridge and Woolsey also traveled the state over the weekend, hosting their own events to promote McCain.
Romney, meanwhile, has been pushing his background in business as his advantage over the others on the economic front, a tact that also seems to be plucking off voters who are unconvinced by Giuliani's new emphasis on the issue.
Many who backed Giuliani early on have been reconsidering, like Jacob Beckel of Tampa, who attended McCain's roundtable on national security. After attending a Giuliani fundraiser in Tampa in December and donating $2,300, the maximum contribution allowed in the presidential primary, he reconsidered the candidate in light of increased scrutiny of his record and questions about his electability.
"Giuliani in my opinion is not what the American public is looking for," Beckel said. "I think his personal issues override the good he did as a U.S. attorney or as the mayor of New York. He did great things there, but in my opinion there are still too many other issues that override that."
Beckel has since donated to the Huckabee campaign, though he says he's still considering voting for McCain.
By most accounts, Giuliani is a victim of his own strategy that put all his effort into Florida. At the Orange County Republican Party dinner Saturday, his supporters were few and far between, and while his speech got a decent reception from the crowd, there was little enthusiasm. Many said that while they were once sympathetic to his campaign, his lack of success in the early primary states has made him appear weak.
"I was disappointed he didn't spend more time in the early primary states. I think that hurt him, and I think that's going to put the nail in his coffin come Tuesday," said Tom Minter of Orlando, who attended the Orange County dinner Saturday. Minter first backed Giuliani but is now deciding between Romney and Huckabee. "I don't think he's going to carry Florida, and if he doesn't, he's done."
As the first -- and likely the last -- test of his candidacy draws closer, Giuliani struggles to appear hopeful. But it seems to be becoming increasingly clear to the candidate himself that skipping the early states was a gross miscalculation.
"Don't listen to any of the cynics. Don't listen to the experts," he implored the Sarasota crowd. "You're the experts. The person who goes in the polling place and marks down the ballot, marks down the vote, that's the expert."
