Lots of stuff out there today on the decision to destroy a "rogue" satellite with elements of the missile defense system. Noah Shachtman explains how the satellite will be destroyed, and eviscerates the public rationale for destroying it. This sounds about right to me:
Our veteran space security specialist believes there are several [rationales]. To him, the satellite shot is a chance for the military to try out its missile defense capabilities; a way to keep secret material out of the wrong hands; and a warning to the Chinese, after they destroyed a satellite about a year ago.
Jeffrey Lewis is concerned about the debris field likely to be created by the destruction of the satellite. We don't know enough about the behavior of such fields, so the destruction of any satellite can be dangerous to future efforts at using space. Peter Howard has some further thoughts about the justification for the shot and the potential political effects. Perhaps most interesting, Norman Polmar has a good discussion of Russian and Chinese efforts to ban the use of anti-satellite weapons. This is one that I'll have to give more thought; it's certainly a good idea if possible, but I'm uncertain of the prospects for success.
--Robert Farley
