Almost before John Kerry had sealed up the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, he was being advised to name his vice president -- now. Every Democrat in Washington seemed to think that an accelerated selection process was essential to Kerry's success; even Nancy Pelosi said that it was "important to have a nominee by May 1."
But somehow Kerry held out, and now -- with less than a month before the Democratic national convention begins on July 26 -- the chatter over whom he will choose is louder than ever. Although a long-shot dark horse could come out of nowhere and/or left field to defy all expectations (and spur a frenzy of clichés), the list of serious contestants has shrunk considerably. With the announcement imminent, how do the likely candidates stack up?
The American Prospect staff looks at what each man might bring to the ticket -- or take away from it. From our favorite to -- well, let's just say to our fifth favorite, your potential nominees are:
John Edwards
Seriously, is there any question? Well, a few legitimate reservations -- we'll get to those. But here's the case. One, Democrats want him. A poll released earlier this week showed him the top choice of Democrats, and I suspect they'd be a little, ah, confused if it went to anyone else. Two, he earned it with his impressive performance during the primaries (which is why Democrats want him). He wore well, gaining in every state in which he spent a fair amount of time. Three, he possesses a charisma that John Kerry, well, does not; it would speak very well of Kerry if he could prove himself above resenting or being insecure about this. Four, OK, he might not bring North Carolina. But with his proven swing-voter appeal, he makes the ticket that much more competitive in the areas of swing states that usually go Republican -- that is, send Edwards into northern Florida, across southern Ohio and southern West Virginia, into rural Missouri; he'll steal votes in those areas, maybe enough votes in a close race to carry the state. And hey, he just might bring North Carolina.
What does Edwards have going against him? He's comparatively low on the “grown-up” factor and has no heavy national-security experience. This is a potential problem that should be taken seriously: The Bush-Cheney campaign will seize on his lack of foreign-policy gravitas and try to make it an issue. On the other hand, like Cheney's done such a great job? This will come down to the vice-presidential debate, and Edwards can probably handle it.
-- Michael Tomasky
Joe Biden
Joe Biden's a smart, experienced, and well-respected legislator, especially on foreign-policy issues. Picking him would plant Kerry firmly in the internationalist camp within the Democratic Party -- and help reach out to disillusioned Iraq hawks who are disappointed with Bush's implementation but not ready to reject the overarching concept.
But Biden's a bit, well, dull. Plus he can deliver his home state of, well, Delaware. He also seems to lack the instinct for the jugular -- many were deeply disappointed by his performance during the Clarence Thomas hearings -- and may be ill-suited to the traditional vice-presidential attack-dog role. Also, he sometimes plagiarizes speeches from Neil Kinnock.
-- Matthew Yglesias
Tom Vilsack
There are two things you need to know about Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack up front: the first is that he's the first Democratic governor of Iowa in more than 30 years; the second is that he's not from Iowa. Vilsack was born in Pittsburgh and adopted after being placed in a Catholic orphanage shortly after birth. Unfortunately, his new mother drank too much and was abusive, then left Vilsack's dad alone to raise him and his sister when Vilsack was 13.
Unlike John Kerry and George W. Bush, Tom Vilsack didn't go to Ivy League schools, graduating from Hamilton College in upstate New York in 1972 and Albany Law School in 1975. It was at Hamilton that he met his future wife, Christie Bell, a native Iowan whom he followed back to the Buckeye State after law school to work in her father's firm. By 1987, Vilsack had become mayor of Christie's hometown of Mt. Pleasant, population around 8,000. Six years representing heavily Republican Henry Country in the Iowa state Senate followed before Vilsack used his skill working across party lines to win his first term in the governor's mansion in 1998. In office, he focused on education and childhood-development issues, winning re-election in 2002.
The single greatest weakness Vilsack would bring to the Democratic ticket is his lack of name recognition. That said, once people get to know him, his personal narrative would likely prove appealing to the American love of those who've overcome personal hardship or long odds. He is a political moderate who could bring outside-the-Beltway executive experience to the Kerry ticket, and as a midwesterner from a fairly rural state full of farms, small towns, and a smattering of Rust Belt-style factory closures, he'd likely know how to appeal to voters in heartland swing states. Christie Vilsack would also likely prove an able campaigner for a Kerry-Vilsack ticket; she already campaigned for Kerry in Iowa during the primaries, and has been a real boon to her husband's efforts there over the years. Like John Edwards, Vilsack is a trial lawyer, and though he is not as close to the lawyers' groups as Edwards, he could bring some of that community's formidable cash to the Kerry campaign.
One other potential problem, though, is that Vilsack signed a Republican-backed “English only” law in Iowa in 2002, which could alienate some Hispanic voters. Vilsack is considered quite good on immigration and Latino issues in Iowa -- he's actively tried to recruit immigrants to come to revive his state's sagging population -- and national Hispanic groups, at least, might be inclined to give him a pass. It's unclear, however, whether voters in the Southwest would be as generous.
-- Garance Franke-Ruta
Dick Gephardt
No one disputes that Dick Gephardt is a man of substance and principle. For more than a decade, he led the fight against the free-trade mania that has weakened the U.S. economy. American workers have had no more dogged defender in the time of the Republican ascendancy than Missouri Dick.
That said, the much-vaunted labor support for Gephardt's vice-presidential bid has been overblown. A number of manufacturing unions -- but by no means all -- are Gephardt's core supporters, along with the Teamsters. (Teamsters President James P. Hoffa and Gephardt were law-school classmates.) But manufacturing is just one sector within the labor movement, and many other union leaders have drawn the same conclusion that countless Democrats have reached on their own: Dick Gephardt is a proven non-vote-getter.
This year's Iowa primary didn't just anoint John Kerry and boost John Edwards; it also drove Dick Gephardt from the race. Gephardt not only ran a dismal fourth; he lost factory towns to Kerry and Edwards. That is, Gephardt couldn't win the allegiance of his own base. He failed to ignite his own pile of tinderwood. And it's difficult to see whom, exactly, he would bring into the Democratic column that Kerry doesn't already have. If the concern is swing voters in the Midwest, Edwards, who emerged during the primary season as the tribune for downscale America, would be a far better pick. If the concern is Missouri, well, Gephardt has never run statewide in Missouri.
The case for Gephardt among the union leaders who remain his chief, if not only, constituency is that he was there for us, and we should be there for him. That's a good reason to buy tickets to a testimonial dinner. When the stakes are ending the presidency of George W. Bush, it isn't a reason at all.
-- Harold Meyerson
Bob Graham
Florida Senator Bob Graham for vice president? Is this a bad joke? The 68-year-old former governor and onetime presidential contender will retire his Senate seat in November, and rumor has it that he is on the Kerry shortlist for veep. The logic here is not particularly sophisticated: Graham is popular with the voters in Florida, the grand poobah of battleground states in this election. And as former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, he has enough experience to make authoritative criticisms of the Bush administration's national-security failures.
But vice presidents rarely carry whole states, and it is ludicrous to think that Graham could tip Florida, a state that is governed by the popular brother of the president. Graham is a lousy campaigner; he is not particularly personable, and most of his own races weren't competitive. And in Graham's own bid for the Democratic nomination last year, his personal quirks drew much more attention than his platform. (Remember Graham's obsessive detailing of daily events in his little notebooks? Weird.) And lest we forget, Graham was considered -- and passed over -- for the vice presidency in 1988, 1992, and 2000. Message to the Kerry campaign: lesson learned -- thrice.
Bob Graham should retire to Florida, hit the links, and spend some quality time with his small village of grandchildren. He has had a long and wonderful career in politics. But he does not deserve an office in the Old Executive Office Building.
-- Ayelish McGarvey
