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Almost three weeks ago, I noted that Democrats were inching ever closer to 60 seats in the Senate. Since then, the eight likely pick-ups have solidified (save for in New Hampshire, where Jeanne Shaheen still leads, but Sununu has closed the gap considerably), and the three marginal seats (Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky) have become more competitive. So I've updated the chart, and added a column showing the change towards the Democrats in the last three weeks. All numbers come from Pollster.com.
That can't be making the folks at the RSCC happy. One thing to note is Susan Collin's safety in Maine. ut in Georgia and Mississippi, they're thinking of ridding themselves of their Republican Senators. Out in liberal Maine, they love Collins. The lesson, which other moderates are probably taking to heart, is that it's a good time to be seen as an independent, even liberal, Republican, and a rather bad time to be seen as a party-line conservative. And Collins looks to be heeding the lesson. Buried in the final paragraph of this New York Times article on her candidacy comes this important nugget:
| State | Democrat % | Republican % | Democratic Margin % | Change Since 10/09/08 |
| New Mexico | 55.9 | 39.5 | 16.4 | +1.6 |
| Virginia | 60.3 | 31.3 | 29 | +13.8 |
| New Hampshire | 48.7 | 42.1 | 6.6 | -8.2 |
| Colorado | 48.5 | 39.3 | 9.2 | +3.6>|
| North Carolina | 47.1 | 42.4 | 4.7 | -.2 |
| Oregon | 44.2 | 38.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 |
| Alaska | 47.4 | 46.0 | 1.4 | +1.2 |
| Minnesota | 39.2 | 36.1 | 3.1 | +3.5 |
| Mississippi | 45.6 | 47.1 | -1.5 | +3 |
| Georgia | 44.2 | 46.1 | -1.9 | +4.6 |
| Kentucky | 44.4 | 47.4 | -3 | +4.6 |
| Maine | 40.7 | 54.5 | -13.8 | +.6 |
After the debate, she told a voter concerned about health care who came up to talk to her that she was open to supporting Mr. Obama’s health care plan, should he be elected president. “I actually think his plan is pretty good,” Ms. Collins said.A Republican vote for Obama's health care plan? In a Senate that may well see between 59 and 61 Democrats? That's a very big deal. That could break a filibuster, and swing other Republicans as they realize the legislation can't be killed.
