George W. Bush approaches the end of his first term beset by policy and political troubles that have severely compromised his chances for re-election. Iraq, of course, tops the list, with the anemic economy an unchallenged second. But it's worth remembering that the president's troubles didn't begin on September 11 or when he chose to invade Iraq in response.
It began in the U.S. Senate in the spring of 2001, when Jim Jeffords, taken aback by the aggressive conservatism of the administration, decided to abandon the GOP in what one Republican colleague described as a “pure repudiation” of the president and his strong-arm ideological tactics. The Jeffords moment permanently altered the course of the Bush presidency -- prompting smaller tax cuts and bigger fights on judges -- and could only have been overshadowed by something as epic as 9-11 or a war.
We got both, but the White House didn't forget what it was like having Tom Daschle as the majority leader for 18 months. That's why the president spent so much of his time and political capital in an unprecedented effort to beat Senate Democrats in 2002. It worked.
That's also why, with days left in the campaign, retaining GOP control of the Senate may be more important to this White House than anything except its own political survival.
Democrats are more hopeful than they have a right to be and more hopeful than they were just a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are counting on the fact that most of the tight races are in states where Bush is expected to run strong and could help their cause.
Today, the Senate is split 51 to 48, Republicans over Democrats. Jeffords, the lone independent, votes with the Democrats on organizational issues, like who should be majority leader. The bottom line is that GOP control rests on a two-vote margin; Democrats must steal two GOP seats in order to take over.
It's a wonder that Democrats have a chance at all. When five southern Democrats announced their retirements last year, the party's chances seemed dim. Now it doesn't seem entirely ridiculous when Democrats talk about having 51 or 52 seats in the next Congress.
There are nine close Senate races, the outcomes of which will determine who controls the Congress. Of these nine, Democrats are defending five and Republicans four. Each side has already conceded the loss of one seat. Democrats seem to have no chance in Georgia, where Zell Miller is retiring and Congressman Johnny Isakson enjoys a huge lead over Congresswoman Denise Majette. Republicans have conceded Illinois, where the Democrats await the coronation of the beloved Barack Obama, whose streak of flawed opponents reached its apogee when the Illinois GOP selected Alan Keyes, of Maryland, to face Obama.
Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Alaska, Oklahoma, Colorado, and, most amazingly, Kentucky. Except for Colorado, all are states in which Bush is expected to win big.
Meanwhile, Democrats are fighting off strong Republican assaults in four southern states -- North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Florida -- where Democratic fortunes have been in decline. On the whole, the map argues for a GOP runaway, but recent breaks have repeatedly gone the Democrats' way.
The latest is a series of odd episodes on the part on Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning, who once enjoyed a 29-point lead over Dan Mongiardo, a 44-year-old physician and state senator who has been campaigning as “Dr. Dan.” Bunning, who turned 73 last week, is a baseball Hall of Famer who once pitched a perfect game against the Mets. But he has been guilty of some wild pitches late in the campaign. First, he said that Mongiardo looked liked the sons of Saddam Hussein. Then, more recently, he admitted that he had used a TelePrompTer to deliver his opening and closing statements during a satellite debate for which he was in Washington and Mongiardo was in Kentucky. Finally, he refused an offer to appear on a nationally televised Meet the Press debate.
A poll this week put Bunning ahead of Mongiardo by 44 percent to 43 percent. The narrowing margin has caused the Democrats to pour $1.3 million into the Kentucky campaign.
“We do have a horse race in horse country,” declared Jon Corzine, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
The other high-stakes race is, of course, is in South Dakota, where Minority Leader Tom Daschle is in a fight for his life against a candidate recruited by the White House and buoyed by the fact that Bush's margin over Al Gore in the Coyote State four years ago (60 percent to 38 percent) was larger than it was in Texas (59 percent to 38 percent).
John Thune, a former congressman in a state that elects only one member to the House, is well-known, well-funded, and has the help of the White House and the Senate GOP leadership. Thune ran for the Senate in 2002 against another South Dakota Democrat, Tim Johnson, and lost by a mere 524 votes. Daschle could become the first party leader to lose his seat since Barry Goldwater beat Majority Leader Ernest McFarland in 1952. Or he could wake up to the news that he will be the next majority leader, one who would make life a lot easier for a President Kerry -- or monumentally more difficult for a re-elected President Bush. Expect this one to go late into the night.
Early in the Bush administration, when there was still hope that the president might live up to his campaign promises to be a “uniter, not a divider” and to change the tone in Washington, the Senate was split 50-50. It seemed on the verge of leading the way to help heal rifts in the country. Daschle and then-Majority Leader Trent Lott worked out a power-sharing deal that allowed the place to function. They also brought the eternally stymied McCain-Feingold campaign-finance bill to the floor, debated it with some civility, and passed it. But it was not long before the fight over the size of the Bush tax cuts forced Jeffords to bolt.
On the night before Jeffords' announcement, with the Capitol awash in rumors of a regime change in the Senate, former President Gerald Ford delivered a lecture in the Old Senate Chamber in which he seemed to be warning Bush against alienating others the way he had Jeffords.
“I learned that an adversary is not the same as an enemy,” Ford said. “I learned to fight hard for my belief without questioning the motives or patriotism of those who believed otherwise. Thus I come before you tonight not to bury political moderation but to praise it.”
That seems a quaint sentiment in these times.
I prefer playing the odds to making them, but I'd say there's a better than 50-50 chance that the 109th Congress could begin with another evenly split Senate -- and moderation is not likely to come out of the starting gate.
Terence Samuel is the chief congressional correspondent for U.S. News & World Report. His column about politics appears each week in the Prospect's online edition.
