Although Paul Krugman frequently delves into his area of expertise, economics, in order to dispatch conservative myths and cons -- on tax cuts, health care, the stimulus package -- his strength has always been to tie policy to political motivation.
With this in mind, Krugman's column in today's Times begins with a promising premise. He notes that the looming economic crisis seems, superficially, to resemble that of the late 1970s. Krugman questions whether it is accurate to say we are actually headed towards "stagflation" or not, and whether this means the next president is doomed to suffer the fate of Jimmy Carter, or the elder George Bush. We don't have to end up with stagflation, he pronounces, but only if the next president is willing to take a bold political stand against an intransigent Congress packed with a not-insignificant number of conservative ideologues who view tax cuts as the only effective economic remedy.
Krugman is skeptical about a Democratic president being able to do this (he dismisses a Republican president outright for obvious reasons). But what's curious is his conclusion, in which he says, "And if effective action isn't forthcoming, the next president will suffer the fate of Jimmy Carter, who began his administration with words of uplift -- “Let us create together a new national spirit of unity and trust” -- and ended up delivering America into the hands of the hard right." Now who could that be? Perhaps a prominent and charismatic contender for the White House whose main flaw, according to his critics, is that he is an empty suit? What grates isn't that Krugman appears to have a problem with Barack Obama -- that has been obvious for some time in his writings -- but rather that Krugman's antipathy towards Obama appears to have clouded his judgment to the point where he is making basic causal errors. Until this closing paragraph, Krugman had not even considered the impact of a unity governing philosophy. Suddenly, it has major consequences, possessing the power not only to explain why the peanut farmer from Georgia only served one term, but why future presidents could suffer the same fate.
If a president Obama fails to stabilize the economy in his first term, it won't be because he tried to govern on "change we can believe in." It will be because of the difficult political obstacles Krugman describes in the middle of his column, and apparently forgets by the end.
--Mori Dinauer
