I have serious trouble believe Obama really means to push an immigration reform bill this year. Obama and which congressional sponsors? Kennedy is sick and McCain is angry and few others have the standing or the courage. Him and what political capital? After the banking system, the stimulus, health reform, cap and trade, education, the budget, and whatever emerges between now and then, he's going to leap into the snake pits of immigration?I doubt it. The New York Times story that's exciting folks is based off an interview with Celia Munoz that sounds like the equivalent of "he'll form a commission." She says that "over the summer [Obama] will convene working groups, including lawmakers from both parties and a range of immigration groups, to begin discussing possible legislation for as early as this fall." Elsewhere she says that he intends to "start the debate" this year. A betting man, I think, would not lay down $50 on Congress seriously considering immigration legislation this fall. Strengthening that bet is the fact that historically, recessions are not periods during which the white working class displays a particularly cosmopolitan bent. The Great Depression, in fact, featured expulsions. My sense is there will be just enough action on this issue to sustain the link between Obama and the Hispanic electorate, but fairly little will be risked in the short-term, in part because the structural constraints could render forward action counterproductive. The political system doesn't have the obvious capacity for leadership right now. This is a period when the pressure will have to come from an activated reform movement rather than courageous politicians. SI SE PUEDE?
I have serious trouble believe Obama really means to push an immigration reform bill this year. Obama and which congressional sponsors? Kennedy is sick and McCain is angry and few others have the standing or the courage. Him and what political capital? After the banking system, the stimulus, health reform, cap and trade, education, the budget, and whatever emerges between now and then, he's going to leap into the snake pits of immigration?I doubt it. The New York Times story that's exciting folks is based off an interview with Celia Munoz that sounds like the equivalent of "he'll form a commission." She says that "over the summer [Obama] will convene working groups, including lawmakers from both parties and a range of immigration groups, to begin discussing possible legislation for as early as this fall." Elsewhere she says that he intends to "start the debate" this year. A betting man, I think, would not lay down $50 on Congress seriously considering immigration legislation this fall. Strengthening that bet is the fact that historically, recessions are not periods during which the white working class displays a particularly cosmopolitan bent. The Great Depression, in fact, featured expulsions. My sense is there will be just enough action on this issue to sustain the link between Obama and the Hispanic electorate, but fairly little will be risked in the short-term, in part because the structural constraints could render forward action counterproductive. The political system doesn't have the obvious capacity for leadership right now. This is a period when the pressure will have to come from an activated reform movement rather than courageous politicians. 
