The Sri Lankan government has forced the Tamil Tiger guerrilla organization onto a narrow spit, about 7 kilometers long. Unfortunately, the U.N. estimates that between 50,000 and 100,000 civilians are trapped in the area along with the Tigers. Continuing military operations by the Sri Lankan government and the Tigers are resulting, according to the UN, in about 70 civilian casualties per day. Things will get worse before they get better, as the Tigers have been conscripting and arming civilians as their military cause has grown more desperate.
The Sri Lankan government faces a conundrum. It can destroy the major military formations of the Tamil Tiger organization, which is no small feat. However, ending the influence of the organization is beyond the military capacity of the Sri Lankan state, because much of the Tiger's support comes from the Tamil diaspora. The Tigers also continue to have underground support in Tamil parts of Sri Lanka. Solving these last two problems depends on political reconciliation, and causing large civilian casualties while destroying the last organized Tiger resistance would set back reconciliation prospects.
Key, I think, to a successful resolution is post-conflict management on the part of international organizations and the international community. The success of any ceasefire, prior to the destruction of the military arm of the Tigers, is premised on the willingness of the parties to negotiate. There's not that much indication thus far that either are interested; the government is winning, and the Tigers don't want to negotiate from a position of weakness. Our best hope is that the international community can create sufficient incentive for the Columbo government to maintain a fair peace, while limiting the ability of the wider Tamil community to support another insurgency.
--Robert Farley
