Whoever wins on Tuesday -- based on today's polls Barack Obama, but anything is possible in politics -- will face a tough set of challenges come inauguration day. But the winner has a few months, barring any 2000-style post-election shenanigans, to assemble his team of top advisers and officials. With two wars ongoing and a recession to manage, it is probable that the president-elect's top national security and economic officials will be announced quickly, perhaps by the second week of November. Even now, transition teams for both candidates are toiling away to determine who will head various executive agencies, and the White House has launched a Transition Coordinating Council to ease the hand-off, a more comprehensive approach that came out of the 2000 transition. But what if you don't have ties to one of those teams? How do you wage a Cabinet campaign?
"It's a very, very delicate balance, in my judgment," Mack McLarty, Bill Clinton's first chief of staff and one of his transition team leaders, told the Prospect. "It's not so much making it known that you're available or desirous for a Cabinet position, but being active in the policy and or political discussion, where it is logical for you to be considered for a position. Most of the candidates have a pretty good notion, in many, many cases [already know] who they want to appoint."
The following taxonomy details the avenues top politicos take to get executive branch appointments. Nota Bene: Lists journalists create are always gossip at best -- the people in charge aren't talking. But it's always fun to speculate.
Return of the King
Sometimes, you just need to go with what works. Keeping on the current Cabinet member, or bringing back a prior officeholder, imparts an air of competence and seriousness. This tactic also avoids the problem of Senate confirmation -- incumbents don't need to be reconfirmed, and someone who has been confirmed previously will likely sail through the process. Take Robert Gates, the current secretary of defense. Gates has secured bipartisan admiration for his real talk on Iraq and Afghanistan, though he has worried some on the left with his favorable views on expanding our nuclear weapons stockpile. Despite Gates' public statements that he wants to leave the job at the end of this term, both Barack Obama and John McCain have ample reason to keep Gates, at least in the short term, to ease the transition in Iraq policy.
In the Obama camp, there is similar attention paid to Lawrence Summers, who served under Bill Clinton as treasury secretary in the final year of his presidency, and held various important posts beforehand in the Treasury Department and as a World Bank economist. Summers is identified with the Rubinomics, deficit-hawk wing of the Democratic Party -- which could be problematic given the financial crisis. But that hasn't stopped the former secretary -- Summers has been out front with a monthly Financial Times column about the importance of stimulus spending in a recession. His informal campaign has also included advising Obama and lending his name to economic statements put out by the campaign and congressional leadership, making him well positioned for a return to his old post.
The (Relatively) Young Star
On the other hand, new blood is always needed. Rising stars who combine political skills, policy knowledge, and a talent for being in the right place at the right time have a history of landing plum jobs -- think of whiz kid Robert McNamara, who became JFK's secretary of defense at 45, or Clinton Commerce Secretary Ron Brown, who was a rising star among Democrats when he assumed the post. Mike Leavitt, the current health and human services secretary, also fits in this mold, though he's a bit older.
Looking to the next Cabinet, Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has been lauded for his work containing the financial crisis, and Treasury Department and IMF experience burnishes his reputation. Frequently mentioned on the secretary of the treasury short-list, Geithner could also be put into a holding pattern with the potential to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at the end of his term in 2010.
A similar figure is Democratic Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, who made waves when he won his first election in 2004. A pragmatic progressive, Schweitzer is popular in the party and is considered a leading voice on energy policy. Mentioned as a possible secretary of the interior or of energy, he would bring enthusiasm and credibility to a post that is integral to the issue that Obama calls his No. 1 priority, although no one is sure that he'll want to leave his beloved home state. A more plausible example? Alabama Congressman Artur Davis could be tapped as attorney general. A Rhodes scholar, former assistant U.S. attorney and member of the House Judiciary Committee, Davis is only 40. The only downside is that he has multiple outlets for his ambitions, with the potential for a 2010 gubernatorial run or moving up in the House leadership hierarchy.
You Owe Me This One
Though it's not always the best way to make your choice, sometimes it comes down to promises: If someone helps carry your campaign to victory, they are going to want a voice in governing. On the McCain side, independent Democrat Joe Lieberman has been a vociferous surrogate for the Republican nominee, and will face repercussions in the Senate no matter what the outcome. Some expect that he could be secretary of defense or state in a McCain administration. Similarly, Rudy Giuliani has been out front for McCain, doing conference calls, robocalls, and public appearances. The caustic former mayor of New York would be an improbable but not outlandish choice for the Department of Homeland Security, although we all saw how well that went for Giuliani crony Bernard Kerik. Likewise, if McCain manages to beat the odds and win Pennsylvania, expect a reward for former Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, a moderate Republican, VP contender, and the GOP's chief surrogate in the state.
On the Democratic side, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is likely to have his pick of positions. Daschle has been close to Obama for years, lending him staff for both his Senate office -- Pete Rouse, Obama's current chief of staff -- and his campaign -- top operatives like Steve Hildebrand, David Plouffe, and Dan Pfeiffer. The former senator has also been a key adviser to the Democratic nominee, endorsing the Illinois senator early in the primary. The post most often mentioned for Daschle is White House chief of staff, but you could also picture the elder statesmen as secretary of health and human services. Ed Rendell, the truculent Pennsylvania governor who was a big supporter of Hillary Clinton, has worked enthusiastically on Obama's behalf since he gained the nomination, and therefore is a possible pick for transportation secretary.
Staff On
If you're not a big enough name to swing a Cabinet spot by dint of reputation and connections alone, you might have to rely on your smarts and the sweat of your brow. Senior policy and communications advisers can expect plum White House staff posts, but some will have the credibility to vie for a Cabinet post as well. Susan Rice, Obama's main foreign-policy adviser, has had her name bandied around for the post of national security adviser and, somewhat less plausibly, secretary of state. Rice, who served on Clinton's National Security Council and as his assistant secretary of state for African affairs, shares Obama's measured approach to foreign policy but also has a reputation as a good manager.
On the Republican side, McCain economic adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin, a well-regarded economist and former head of the Congressional Budget Office, has been mentioned as a possible director of the Office of Management and Budget or even secretary of commerce. However, Holtz-Eakin has lost some of his bipartisan luster thanks to additional communications duties he has undertaken for the campaign, and, given the campaign's poorly handled response to the financial crisis, it's possible that loyalty may not be enough. And of course, perpetual McCain loyalist Mark Salter could see himself as chief of staff.
I've Found … Myself!
Sometimes the right choice is closer than you think. More often than not, the heads of personnel search committees discover that, lo and behold, they are the best picks for a powerful position! After careful consideration, Dick Cheney picked himself for vice president, and Andrew Card was on President Bush's transition team before becoming his long-serving chief of staff. This year, former Clinton chief of staff and current head of the Center for American Progress John Podesta is heading up Obama's transition efforts, and it's possible if not likely that the well-regarded Democratic operative will take his old position -- or another high ranking job -- in a Democratic administration. Rep. Rahm Emmanuel, chairman of the House Democratic caucus and former DCCC head, who is also a former Clinton White House staffer, is a more plausible potential chief of staff.
Similarly, while there has been a dearth of speculation about whom John McCain's chief of staff might be -- Campaign Manager Rick Davis? -- some say that a contender is his transition team leader, former Reagan Secretary of the Navy John Lehman.
Eminence Gris
When you're big, you're big, and when you're really big, you get mentioned for whatever Cabinet post comes to a writer's mind. On the Democratic side, former Vice President Al Gore might not be considered for the Cabinet -- it's unlikely he'd want to take a step down from his previous position -- but it is easy to imagine him leading an Energy Independence task force.
For the Republicans, it's a return to form with the man, the myth, the legend, James Baker III. Baker, who served Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush as chief of staff (for both), secretary of the Treasury and secretary of State, has also held a variety of elder statesmen roles such as heading the 9/11 Commission and handling the current President Bush's Iraqi debt relief efforts. McCain has spoken warmly of Baker and said he would value his presence in the cabinet. Baker, at 78, isn't likely to be chosen to head a major executive department, but heck, that's only a few years older than McCain, so why write him off?
The Perpetual Name
By some trick of fate, there are certain people who are always in the running for a high-level administration position, by sheer dint of likability, persistence or glittering resume. Former Rep. Tim Roemer is one of these perpetual also-rans; a longtime congressman who also served on the 9-11 Commission, he was also mentioned for a hypothetical John Kerry Cabinet as well as a potential running mate for Obama. Roemer is known in Washington as an effective self-promoter, so it's no surprise his name ends up in reporters' notebooks.
A similar figure is Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, whose glittering resume of service as a congressman, ambassador to the U.N., energy secretary and governor didn't carry him too far in the Democratic presidential primary but is more than enough to get him mentioned for every Cabinet post from state to homeland Security.
You're Out
Of course, there are also people who aren't going to make it, whether it be the skeletons in their closet that would interfere with confirmation hearings (nanny check, everyone!) or that they have simply alienated the wrong people or constituencies. One of these people is retired Gen. Wes Clark. Despite his popularity among the Democratic base, he hasn't been a public surrogate for Obama after this spring's aggressive though not unwarranted criticism of McCain's attempts to run on his war record. But he's unlikely to serve in an Obama administration because of harsh attacks he made on Obama during the primary, when the former NATO commander supported Clinton.
On the Republican side, Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut has been careful for years to preserve his moderate, reach-across-the-aisle credibility. This year he's faced a very tough challenger for his House seat but has persevered, even defending GOP vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin during the Republican convention. Shays has been mentioned as a possible EPA head in a McCain administration, but it doesn't seem likely he'll get that now: Apparently feeling his feet close to the fire with a week to go from Election Day, he went on the record criticizing McCain's campaign, saying he's no longer a maverick.
It's hard to say how well any of the strategies actually work; indeed, there are always several dark horse candidates who emerge from the vetting process. And candidates have to be careful about how hard they push themselves.
"Eight years ago, we were not too impressed with people that mounted lobbying efforts," Clay Johnson III, who directed George W. Bush's transition team, said. "We didn't want to be lobbied. They wanted to know, who's supporting you, but [the president and vice president] didn't want to deal with active lobbying efforts."
So be careful out there, future Cabinet officials. You want to be in the game -- but not of the game.
Additional reporting for this piece provided by Carolyn Petri.
