by Dylan Matthews
The New York Times is relaying Russian reports of 1,500 civilian dead and 15 Russian military fatalities so far in the conflict in Georgia. The Russians are also claiming - and witnesses are confirming - that the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, encircled by Georgian forces just yesterday, is now fully under Russian control, with no Georgian troops to be found. Via Rob Farley, the Georgian government is claiming they withdrew from Tskhnivali voluntarily as part of a ceasefire offer. It strikes me as far likelier that they pulled out so as not to get slaughtered, but regardless, the fact that the Georgians are suing for peace suggests (a) claims of ten Russian plane downings aside, the Georgians are losing, and losing badly and (b) the Georgians have realized that starting a hot war with a nuclear-armed great power isn't the best idea (imagine that!) and have thus downgraded their aims from retaking de facto control over South Ossetia/Abkhazia to surviving in some above-Stone Age condition.
Rob and Anne Applebaum have written excellent analyses of the broader regional and geopolitical issues at play here. In short: Georgia screwed up by letting it get this far, Russia's response was nowhere near proportionate and wholly unacceptable, but regardless, there really isn't anything the West, especially the US, can do to influence the outcome. And, of course, Georgia's dreams of NATO membership are officially kaput.
UPDATE: Of course, also see Alyssa's analysis of Putin's timing below.
