Contra my predicted-the-2006-midterms-pretty-damn-well Contra my predicted-the-2006-midterms-pretty-damn-well book, might there just be a 2008 resurgence for Democrats in southern House seats? I’m not convinced yet. But two recent polls of upcoming special election races, both by Anzalone Liszt Research, suggest even in the Republicans’ strongest strongholds may be weakening.
In MS-01, Democrat Travis Childers is basically tied with Republican Greg Davis; there is a special election primary on April 22, with a run-off on May 13, if necessary. Check out Swing State Project for more. Meanwhile, in LA-6, Democrat Don Cazayoux (great name for Cajun politics!), leads Republican Woody Jenkins by five points in their upcoming, May 5 contest. (Swing State Project has more on the Childers-Davis race here; MyDD's Jonathan Singer has more here about the Cazayoux--I just like typing that name--matchup with Jenkins.)
Even with the note of caution that Anzalone is a Democratic firm, it would be interesting to see how these two races shake out. Like the Democratic capture of former GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat, they could be early bellwethers for November. Of course, special elections draw unusual subsets of the usual November electorate—but in the Republican-dominated South that might be just what these two Democratic hopefuls need.
--Tom Schaller
